title
PEAR Energy

Ending The Endless War

Will Colombia’s democracy survive the violence?

According to popular Colombian lore, a bridge was inaugurated in Eastern Colombia to much fanfare in the mid-twentieth century. Colombia’s Eastern Plains are a vast flatland with roaring rivers, and so the bridge was engulfed by the river a few rainy months later. By the time the dry months returned, the river had settled on a different course, leaving the bridge alone, rising awkwardly above a dry patch of land.

I have heard the story several times from different sources, but I don’t know if it’s true. It deserves to be, since it captures something about the paradoxes of Colombia.

This is a country that in 1991 drafted one of the most modern and enlightened constitutions, consecrating a vast array of citizens’ rights, and during the following decade saw around 3 million of its citizens, more than one in fifteen, internally displaced. Colombia boasts one of the longest democratic traditions in the Western Hemisphere, 120 years of contested elections and peaceful transfers of power; but, in a slow year, more than a thousand Colombians, including union leaders, journalists, and human rights activists, fall victim to political violence. Sometimes the number is two or three times that. An exemplar of prudence and professionalism in its economic management, Colombia hosts one of the largest illegal economies in the world, as the international leader in cocaine production. Life in Colombia’s cities goes on as it would in any other country—and probably with more partying—while right-wing death squads roam the countryside. By some estimates, they have killed more than 40,000 people since the late 1980s, including women, children, and the elderly.

There is no agreement on when Colombia’s plight began or even what to call it. Most say it started 40-50 years ago; however, in 2008 Venezuela’s Hugo Chávez spoke of its “sixty-year war,” while an influential World Bank paper from 2000 places its origins between 1980 and 1984. Colombia’s orgy of killings during the 1940s and ’50s went down in history as the period of La Violencia (The Violence), a generic name suggesting just how difficult it was to comprehend. Similarly, Colombians often refer to their current situation as the “armed conflict,” thus avoiding a more conventional label such as “civil war.” The sitting administration of Álvaro Uribe refused to use the word “conflict” for a while, offering instead “attack against democracy.”

The Colombian and American governments claim that the violence in Colombia—whether twenty or 60 years old, whether armed conflict or civil war—seems to be turning a corner. Such bouts of optimism are an invitation to careful analysis. With a land mass comparable to that of Alaska (and South Africa) and a population of 45 million (comparable to that of the West Coast of the United States), Colombia is a significant presence, and events there reverberate from the Caribbean to the Amazon basin to its sizable diaspora. Future textbooks in Colombia will likely refer to the end of the current conflict as the foundation of a new republic. But after decades of bloodshed, what kind of republic will it be? Will it enshrine the violence or will it bequeath to new generations the peace, tolerance, and solidarity that evaded previous ones? Both outcomes are possible and only time will tell.


The war begins

If we date the onset of the war in Colombia by the founding of the main insurgent organization, it is 44 years old. When the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (known by their Spanish acronym FARC) was founded in 1964, it represented something fundamentally new. To be sure, it emerged from La Violencia, but unlike earlier militias, it was not attached to either of Colombia’s two historic political parties (Liberal or Conservative) and instead had ideological affinities (some say dual-membership) with the Communist Party.

Originally the FARC was a band of displaced peasants seeking a modicum of self-governance in the land they occupied at the end of La Violencia. But it soon styled itself as the avant garde of a communist revolution and grew to become the main insurgent organization in the country. The FARC was too small to have much impact in its early years, which is why some date the war to the early 1980s, when its activities began in earnest. Still, the group’s main leader, Manuel Marulanda Vélez, who recently died of natural causes in his old age, was already fighting an armed conflict around the same time that Fidel Castro launched his revolution.

Longevity is not the only reason the FARC stands out among Third World guerrilla organizations. In contrast with others that sprouted throughout Latin America in the ’60s—many of them products of the radicalized, urban, and educated youth—the FARC was and remains to this day fundamentally a peasant group in a country that is more than 70 percent urban. Though it has made some inroads in the cities, its core support is rural.

In the 1980s, amid peace talks that would eventually fail, the FARC created a political party, the Patriotic Union (UP). What ensued was one of Colombia’s greatest political disasters. A few years after its auspicious beginning, the UP was eliminated with diabolical efficiency. Up to 3,000 supporters—roughly 1 percent of the party’s total votership, or the equivalent of 600,000 U.S. Democrats—died. One by one they were killed, up the rungs of the organization from militants to small-town activists, local elected officials, congressmen, and, ultimately, the two chairmen and presidential candidates. The thoroughness, precision, and impunity of the slaughter was made possible by an unholy alliance of drug lords, rural economic elites, and rogue elements of the armed forces.

Thus began one of the bloodiest, longest, and dirtiest counterinsurgency campaigns in Latin America—which is saying a lot. Over the next fifteen years, the gangs that formed would grow to become Colombia’s current paramilitary groups, responsible for the political assassinations, massacres, and displacements of civilians that have earned Colombia its infamy among human rights groups.

To readers familiar with Latin America, talk of a counterinsurgency campaign usually evokes the image of a tightly centralized operation, coordinated from the highest echelons of power. That is not how it works in Colombia. If anything, it was precisely the incapacity of the Colombian state to curb the guerrillas’ activities in several cattle-growing regions that led local landlords to create their own militias. Of course, such “bottom-up” initiatives depend for their success on good friends, sometimes very good friends, in high places, sometimes very high places. Such friendships were, in fact, plentiful. But the evidence available so far does not allow us to conclude that this “dirty war” was orchestrated by the central government. There is no Colombian Ríos Montt or Pinochet.

Although the duration of Colombia’s war defies explanation, one cynical factor cannot be ignored: until it hit the wealthy and the middle class, it didn’t matter.

With the annihilation of the UP, a crop of articulate activists more attuned than the historical FARC membership to the practice of politics, the FARC was cut down to its rural roots. The survivors never came in from the cold, never abandoned their militaristic outlook and, ultimately, learned again the lesson of the guerrillas pardoned and then killed after La Violencia: never trust the government’s peace overtures.

Even under normal circumstances, such a hardened group of armed peasants would have been a significant thorn in the side of a government chronically unable to assert its authority. But circumstances were far from normal. In a perverse confluence of premodern and postmodern challenges to the nation-state, these peasants linked up with that most globalized of supply chains: the drug trade. The coca crops migrated northward from Bolivia and Peru into Colombia’s outermost rural periphery in the Southeast, the region with the weakest state presence. Operating in this area, the FARC was able to create an embryonic state. It meted out justice on matters ranging from land disputes to marital law and acquired a sizable tax base, the envy of other guerrilla groups and of many governments. By the mid-1990s, the FARC possessed a formidable fighting force, able to inflict heavy casualties on elite units of government soldiers.

It is impossible to overestimate the impact of the drug trade on Colombia’s warfare. A country fights the civil wars it can afford. The inflow of drug money, apart from allowing the FARC to sustain a deadly arms race with the right-wing death squads funded by the same sources, profoundly transformed the conflict. With its political structures in ruin and its military fronts gaining strength, the FARC began to act in several areas of the country as an occupation army. Before it took on the government, it was shelling civilian targets, recruiting minors, planting land mines, and kidnapping citizens for ransom in a pattern of abuses that was as morally repugnant as it was politically tone-deaf.

But while the corrupting effect of drug money runs deep inside the FARC, the widespread view of the group as an overgrown criminal racket (recently the government coined the “FARC cartel”) is very likely exaggerated. The FARC spends abundant resources in keeping a fighting force larger than would be necessary to run a drug operation. Reportedly, it also maintains, at significant cost and risk, several underground political activities.


Game of mirrors

Colombia’s paramilitary started as little more than a particularly deadly kind of security detail for landowners. Over time, however, they, like the FARC, have grown in size, complexity, and wealth, and become increasingly involved in the production and processing of cocaine. As the FARC’s political arm has atrophied, the paramilitary groups have developed new societal and political ties, probably the most lasting consequence of this game of mirrors.

Caught in the crossfire, Colombian peasants have displayed the same everyday ingenuity and political volatility as their counterparts in many other rural conflicts in the world, shifting allegiances depending on which army can provide security. Thus, even such bastions of working-class radicalism as the oil refineries in Barrancabermeja or the banana export concerns in Urabá—presumably home to ideological allies of the FARC—became paramilitary strongholds through a time-honored tactic: first, ruthlessly kill as many political contacts of the enemy as possible, then terrorize the population and impose law and order. In due course, loyalty follows, especially if the other faction is nowhere to be seen. It works.

Although both armies recruit heavily from the Colombian peasantry, the paramilitary have been more successful in tapping into the slum youth that had already found in urban organized crime a ticket to respect among peers, a modicum of wealth for their families (often their single mothers), and early death. They have been more successful in accessing political and economic power, too.

Born out of the landowning elites in contentious regions, the paramilitary groups have continued to nourish these connections. In what has become known as the “parapolitics” scandal, since 2006 more than 60 congressmen have been investigated for links to these illegal armies, and about half of those investigated have been indicted.

Far from simply cultivating contacts, the militias have also become more assertive in pursuing their own political aspirations. In recent elections, several local machine politicians have been defeated by dark horses sympathetic to the aims of militias and their elite patrons, a phenomenon that suggests the paramilitary’s considerable power.

The political successes of the militias mark something of a reversal. During La Violencia the patrician classes found it difficult to oversee their estates and, while absent, lost much of their political hold in the countryside. The result was the emergence of a new class of politicos, more plebeian in their origins and more tied to the parties and the state bureaucracy. The present war will likely bring back a political class with closer ties to private economic concerns, similar to the one displaced decades ago.


The global economy intrudes

Although the duration of Colombia’s war defies explanation, one cynical factor cannot be discounted: for years it did not matter. Until the ’90s the insurgency festered in the countryside, largely sparing the Andean region, where most Colombians live and where most of the GDP is produced.

But Colombia’s economic geography is changing. Over the past two decades, coffee has been displaced as the leading export, first by oil, then by coal. Today, remittances from migrant workers are the largest source of foreign capital. A new set of natural resources has enormous potential: palm oil for biofuels, timber, and, presumably in a post-conflict future, the natural beauty of the landscape itself, attractive to eco-tourists. Whereas coffee historically has been grown in the dramatic slopes of the Western Mountain Range, cultivated in middle-sized plots, and hand-picked in a labor-intensive operation, the new exports are produced in the vast Eastern Plains and the Atlantic and Pacific coastal areas and involve large industrialized, capital-intensive land holdings.

The new frontier of agro-exports coincides strikingly with the flashpoints of the war. Through eviction and intimidation, the paramilitary groups have accumulated huge swaths of land in the newly exploited regions, and in the process created one of the world’s worst crises of internally displaced people.

No Colombian president has been as uncompromising with the FARC—or engaging with the right-wing paramilitary—as Álvaro Uribe.

Now the war matters for the most consequential political constituencies and economic agents (of course, it always mattered to those ravaged by it). For the urban middle classes, that powerhouse of electoral mobilization, the war has come to their doorstep not only in the form of displaced beggars but, more shockingly, kidnappings for ransom at the hands of the FARC. The psychological effect of the kidnappings—frequently on key roads—cannot be exaggerated. For Colombia’s urban middle classes, the weekend outing means a cherished respite from congested cities in distant but familiar small villages—often, in a country of recent urbanization, places of childhood memories and elderly relatives.

Other forces propelled the war to the forefront of Colombia’s politics. While its export base moved internally, Colombia, no stranger to the neoliberal reforms that swept South America in the ’90s, eagerly plugged into the world’s capital flows. It has since run up considerable trade deficits, to the obvious pleasure of Colombians, who have embraced the luxury cars, glitzy boutiques, daring restaurants, and exotic vacations that followed the wave of foreign investment.

Just as the global drug trade placed the coca frontier men of Putumayo in the same transactional chain as the overworked young executives of New York, the global economy has thrust Colombia’s peasant guerrillas onto center stage. If it is to keep receiving foreign investment, Colombia needs to overcome its “country risk.” It needs to end the war. Thus, over the past ten years, citizens have voted repeatedly to do just that, in 1998 through negotiations, in 2002 and 2006 by force.


Endgame

On February 20, 2002 the FARC hijacked a regional plane and kidnapped Senator Jorge Eduardo Géchen Turbay. Even more than the FARC’s brutality and military prowess, what shocked Colombians was the timing. On the heels of other provocations, the hijacking brought an end to the longest and most thorough peace process ever offered the FARC by any government.

From the point of view of the Colombian public, there was nothing the FARC could have disliked about the peace process, which had been initiated by President Andrés Pastrana in 1998. As a temporary gesture to facilitate talks, though not as a “final status” concession, the government had granted the FARC a demilitarized zone the size of Switzerland, a fact never neglected by the process’s critics.

The kidnapping occurred in the thick of the electoral season, and in a matter of weeks, voters flocked to the one candidate who had denounced the peace process: Álvaro Uribe. Before the kidnapping, Uribe had languished in the polls, but on election day he crushed his nearest rival and won an absolute majority of votes, precluding the need for a secondary election. Just as spectacular as Uribe’s rise in the national vote was his performance in the major cities: in Bogotá and Medellín he obtained twice as many votes as any previous successful presidential candidate.

The speed, vehemence, and bitterness with which the electorate, especially city-dwellers, turned toward the most hawkish candidate suggest that large segments of the citizenry had accepted the peace process only through gritted teeth. They had come to view the FARC as an alien army to be defanged, by force if possible, negotiations if necessary, rather than a wayward group of countrymen with whom reconciliation was desirable.

President Uribe enjoys approval ratings unprecedented in a country notorious for its political cynicism. It would be a mistake to discount the friendly role of the media—the country’s main national daily, El Tiempo, was owned by the family of Vice President Francisco Santos Calderón until 2007 and remains a staunch ally of the administration—but more important is Uribe’s novel security policy. He has pursued an all-out military effort against the FARC, with only perfunctory gestures at dialogue; and, in a radical departure from previous practices, a sui generis peace process with the paramilitary groups. No predecessor has been as uncompromising with the FARC or as willing to engage with the paramilitary.

Indeed, it is in the offensive against the FARC that the government has had its biggest success. Certainly the anti-drug effort has made little progress. Uribe’s first Minister of the Interior, Fernando Londoño, predicted that the coca crops would be eradicated in eighteen months. The hardy plants are still there, and their crop is still widely available at relatively low prices in U.S. cities. But the Uribe government’s aggressive tactics against the FARC themselves have forced some fighters to surrender and led to the rescue of numerous hostages. One of the most serious blows was the death of Raúl Reyes, the FARC’s second-in-command, who met his end in a Colombian army operation across the Ecuadorian border, which triggered a significant international crisis.

The FARC has proven resilient, but recently has suffered the worst blows in its history. By conservative estimates, its membership is half the size of five years ago.

Before Uribe, the government had always officially rejected negotiations with the militias. (Unofficially, several members of the armed forces have been complicit in their substantial growth.) The Uribe administration changed course by offering them a settlement in the context of the “Law of Justice and Peace.”

Under the terms of the agreement, the paramilitary groups can obtain some judicial benefits if they confess their crimes and offer compensation to their victims. As a result several paramilitary leaders are serving prison sentences and some foot soldiers have laid down their weapons. In a surprising move, Uribe also extradited the most prominent leaders of the paramilitary to the United States, where they face charges of drug smuggling.

The paramilitary’s most visible leadership has thus been dismantled, but Uribe may have mortgaged the possibilities of the accord on their punishment: under these new circumstances, will remaining paramilitary leaders cooperate? Moreover, extricating the army from the paramilitary has proven a Sisyphean task, and the victims’-compensation process moves at glacier speed. There is little chance that evicted peasants will be returned to their lands.

Some critics of the administration suggest that Uribe is in cahoots with the paramilitary, and whatever the government’s intentions, clearly the paramilitary obtained a deal better than anything currently on offer to the FARC. The paramilitary entered talks in a position of strength. They suffered no pre-negotiation offensive intended to soften them up. With the FARC, the government always continued fighting until the day before talks and made clear that, should the talks fail, new attacks would come.

The paramilitary’s vast political and economic connections offer them high-level protection. Thanks to decades of carefully preserved connections, the militias have the capacity to blackmail “respectable” figures in Colombia’s public life. To revert their land-grabs, in both the critical new export sectors and in the more traditional cattle-growing areas, would require legal and institutional commitments that the government appears unwilling to make.

Moderate progress has been made outside of government, however. Working under the tight deadlines of the Law of Justice and Peace, some jurists and human rights activists have brought charges against the paramilitary leaders. This legal pressure has resulted in several confessions, and, especially of late, media portrayals have exposed Colombians to the brutality of the paramilitary campaigns.

As for the FARC, it has proven remarkably resilient, but recently has suffered the worst blows in its long history. Conservative estimates put membership at 8,000, possibly half the size of five years ago. In many countries insurgent groups much smaller than this have been able to mount major challenges to their establishments. Yet for several years, the FARC has all but acknowledged that military victory is not feasible. Whenever it leaders articulate their goals, an exercise that does not come easy to guerrillas unaccustomed to politics, they talk of a “transitional government of national unity.” In other words, they’ve given up on the pie, and are prepared to settle for a slice. In its most optimistic flights of imagination, the FARC would consider it a huge victory (as no doubt it would be) if, in exchange for laying down their weapons, its members were allowed a permanent foothold in Colombian politics. They would rejoice at a deal similar to the one the Maoist guerrillas in Nepal only grudgingly accepted.

Even a FARC defeat would not necessarily bring closure to the Colombian conflict. Its forces may, in the way of guerrillas of the ’50s, degenerate into social banditry and linger for years. The Colombian conflict may never know the type of closure that came to Spaniards from Franco’s entry into Madrid or to South Africans from the historic handshakes in Kempton Park.


Orangutan in coattails

Among the many victims of the war may be Colombian democracy, that oddity once described by Darío Echandía, a prominent leader of the Liberal Republic of the ’30s and ’40s, as “an orangutan in coattail.” Coattails are no longer de rigeur for public ceremonies, but Colombians have shown time and again that they like their heads of state in civilian clothes.

When not busy with elections, campaigns, and congressional debates, the orangutan has been growling. In an off year, the number of political assassinations and disappearances in Colombia would humble any military dictator from the Southern Cone. Much of this bloodshed is perpetrated by the FARC, a peculiar type of spokesman for the downtrodden that has killed several peasant and indigenous leaders. But political dissidents, murdered at the hands of the paramilitary or even the state’s agents, make up the bulk of victims.

In the not-too-distant future, Colombians probably will enjoy a much-needed decline in violence. Incidences of kidnapping and assassination are already falling. Lower levels will likely create a new normal. But how shall we describe the resulting democracy? How likely is it, as some liberal thinkers would have it, that Colombian democracy can provide a neutral realm where free and equal citizens can decide together where to take their society?

No society can start from scratch. In Colombia the war has already reshaped land ownership and displaced thousands of families. The next generation of rural labor markets will feed off the dislocation of peasant, indigenous, and black communities. Labor unions, decimated by years of attacks on union activists, will have a lot of rebuilding to do. The emerging political order will be profoundly unequal.

Today, Colombia is mobilized with ever-increasing vigilance and cost against an enemy that by all objective measures has been contained.

But structural injustice will not be the war’s only anti-democratic legacy. As his own term approaches its end on August 7 (an attempt to run for a third term was shot down by the Constitutional Court), and the presidential campaign heats up, Uribe keeps warning of FARC plots to seize power via the electoral process and implicating members of some opposition parties. He has also proposed that university students in Medellín be paid to spy on each other. If what Uribe says of the FARC is true, then the FARC is more powerful today than ever before. That’s not very unlikely. But it would be a serious indictment of the Uribe government’s policy if, after eight years of military efforts, it has not achieved the one task it was elected to accomplish.

Such disingenuous statements—despite the comfortable lead of the pro-government candidate, former Defense Minister Juan Manuel Santos—and attempts to militarize society suggest something else at work: the entrenching of a permanent counter-revolution, a political climate in which the country is mobilized with ever-increasing vigilance, and at ever-increasing cost, against an enemy that by all objective measures has already been contained. Threat inflation is standard operating procedure, which allows the government to treat the legal opposition as a fifth column for a terrorist plot.

Santos’s likely opponent, former Bogotá mayor Antanas Mockus, is distancing himself from the most unsavory practices of the current government (such as illegal wiretappings of political opponents), but offers no wholesale rejection of the policies in place. Little suggests that he will look for a comprehensive peace accord or significant improvements in economic equality. With either Santos or Mockus, the anti-democratic elements in Colombian politics will remain influential.

To be sure, Colombia may be able to stand down and pursue a more equal and democratic future. Peace is possible and may not even be particularly difficult. Colombia’s combatants share the same ethnic, religious, and linguistic background. There is no call for secession, and there will be no forced collectivization of private property. Several decades from now, Colombia’s conflict may appear to have been the growing pains of a society whose modernization process of inclusion and prosperity hadn’t kept pace on an agrarian frontier where only the drug trade and the occasional ill-fated resort to armed struggle offered hope. In that case, Colombia would not be the first country to overcome this condition.

The poorest 20 percent of Colombians live on 3 percent of the country’s GDP, as the defense budget inches toward 6 percent of GDP. Political choices, rather than harsh economic realities, stand in the way of better days.


A new U.S. policy

One of President George W. Bush’s last acts in office was awarding Uribe the Presidential Medal of Freedom, a testament to the ties that bound them through their tenures. Even by the standards of Colombia—probably the most U.S.-friendly country in the region for decades—the closeness between the presidents was unusual.

The political elites of Bogota and Washington have converged in an approach to drugs that fuses interdiction with counterinsurgency, with an occasional tug-of-war between both. But this is not the only possible strategy. After all, the paramilitary are as active in the drug trade as the insurgency, and arguably the flow of people into the coca frontier could be reverted if the land grabs in cattle-growing areas could be rolled back. Yet this alternative is beyond the bounds of political discourse.

Even with Uribe soon to be out of office, it is hard to imagine any U.S. administration taking another approach. Doing so would require an unprecedented willingness and ability to diversify contacts with Colombian society. One could say President Obama needs to get out more, but that would not change anything if his chauffeur and his translators are the same and if they drive him through the same neighborhoods.

Nor will the current electoral cycle in Colombia deliver a whole new cast of characters. The next president promises to be no great “change agent,” and recent legislative elections have returned a Congress remarkably similar to the previous one.

Last summer the Obama administration finalized an agreement to allow the U.S. military access to seven bases in Colombia, with a mandate that covers everything from drug interdiction to counterterrorism in whatever vaporous definition suits the circumstances. This was to be expected. From the U.S. point of view, Colombia is not a crisis flashpoint; with a crowded foreign-policy agenda, why try something new with a firm ally? Colombia is undergoing profound structural changes that make its economic model more volatile, its social inequalities more salient, its political system less democratic, all as a result of brutal counterinsurgency—but this does not make it an urgent national interest for U.S. policymakers.

Colombia’s displaced population will not be beached at the U.S. coast, not any time soon. Drugs will continue to find their way into the United States, as they have for decades. The human rights situation in Colombia will experience its ups and downs dictated by the typical fluctuations of the war, prompting the U.S. government to go from congratulations to admonitions and back, but without any serious challenge to the government.

If Obama were a community organizer, he would encourage the government to restore peasants to their land, instead of fumigating the countryside in service of a futile coca-eradication policy. He would call for a massive grassroots effort to restore peasants’ economic, social, and political rights and a plan for community-centered crop eradication and substitution.

If he were a professor of constitutional law, he would be concerned by the way Colombia’s warlords became entrenched in the political system after destroying dissent in many regions and hollowing out the country’s democratic promise. He would issue stern warnings about the need for an independent judiciary to get to the bottom of the matter, and to breathe new life into the country’s institutions.

If he were a state senator leery of military adventures, he would be alarmed that Colombia’s government has closed off paths to political settlement with the insurgency and exaggerated its danger. He would note that the U.S. response—an ever-growing footprint in Colombia—risks embroiling his country in conflicts with Colombia’s neighbors, such as Venezuela.

If he were a bridge-building candidate, he would be appalled at how the lack of political will perpetuates a war that grows more pointless as time goes by. He would use his position to call all parties to a stance that opens the door for a nonviolent settlement.

But he is President of the United States, and this severely limits his options.


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Comments

1 |
This is an excellent essay as far as explaining the origins of the Colombian conflict. Its through outlook at the political and social factors that gave rise to the FARC, and subsequently to the paramilitaries, is remarkable. Nevertheless, given the author's very deep understanding of the conflict, it is only natural to assume he would venture a solution.
Yes, the elections are unlikely to bring a candidate with enough political will and courage to offer a political settlement, but there are clearly better and worse choices. Santos knowingly has approved of policies that violate the human rights of "campesinos" and of civil society opponents-Mockus hasn't. The military option, even if successful (strictly from a military perspective) will not bring PEACE. The conflict is not about law and order, but about intrinsic social inequality and the monopoly of power by elites. The Colombian nation isn't as homogeneous as the author implies at one point, and racial undertones are very relevant as well. To solve the conflict, a ceasefire and demobilization must be followed by strong and original development and employment projects; not the type Uribe has proposed (which benefit the families of his ministers and senators, as was the case with the agricultural subsidies)
— posted 05/24/2010 at 04:22 by Felipe Cordero
2 |
Tremendously educational
After reading this engaging overview, I now realize that I knew absolutely nothing about the conflict in Colombia before. I thought it was just the state vs. drug cartels, with the FARC as just as another drug cartel that projected a facade of political ambition.

What I can't say I'm surprised to learn is that the principal victims, despite all the tragic kidnappings, are Colombia's poor.

I'd like to see a little more on U.S. involvement. I've heard about the CIA's role in busting the drug cartels, and the negative effects that this has, but most people who write about CIA are just conspiracy theorists. I think this author might have some educated insight on the matter.
— posted 05/24/2010 at 18:47 by Dan
3 |
www.ninosdelaamazonia.org
It was interesting to read about the different factions involved - and I like the sentence ...It would not change anything if his chauffers and his translators are the same... For those interested in learning more about everyday indigenous life in the Peruvian Amazon, please visit www.ninosdelaamazonia.org You will see amazing photos, all of them taken by the children who live there. It is a unique, intimate perspective and a true document of their realities. You will have the opportunity to help educate an indigenous youth if you so desire. Thank you.

— posted 05/31/2010 at 20:40 by amylynn
4 |
whitewashed
@Dan

"I'd like to see a little more on U.S. involvement. I've heard about the CIA's role in busting the drug cartels, and the negative effects that this has, but most people who write about CIA are just conspiracy theorists. I think this author might have some educated insight on the matter."

Please, educate yourself:

scribd.com/zaknick
— posted 06/08/2010 at 17:53 by Nicolas
5 |
Good historian, not so good predictor
As far as the historic perspective goes, the author gives a fairly good account. However, there is a tendency to minimize important events, as the peace negotiations during Andres Pastrana´s administration or Belisario Betancourt´s. As a result, his judgement of the present political situation comes out lopsided as does his prediction of Colombian future. Colombia is not falling as the author implies, but on the contrary, resurging from what eigth years ago was called "a failed state". It is a vibrant democracy, as shown in the recent presidential election with candidates from a broad political spectrum. It has a brilliant economic future as atested by its recent inclusion in Civet group of countries. And, above all, as the author said, with one of the most modern and progresist constitutions in a country with a long tradition for democratic transition.
— posted 06/09/2010 at 05:56 by Eduardo Jaramillo
6 |
Could somebody explain...
The phrase "very likely exaggerated" refered by the author to what almost everybody in Colombia thinks about the criminal activity in which the Farc are involved, amid other seemingly objective writing, needs explanation. Where is the basis for that? No one in Colombia doubts the misery that Farc has brought and very few, but very few, would dare to question that Farc is largely and almost uniquely funded with drug money and extorsion, and that some legal activities are commonly used to cover the illegal ones, money laundry and so on. If they were an illegal army defending the people, they would be able to finance themselfes in a somehow ethically acceptable mean. But over and over again what is found is something very different. Many essays and chronicles tell the tale of drug trafficking inside Farc, too many coming from desertors, former hostages and peasants. So, why is exaggerated to brand them as they really are today, a drug cartel? I would need firm proof of the exaggeration of that.
— posted 06/12/2010 at 17:22 by Nelson Vanegas
7 |
Could somebody explain...
Another wrong assumption by the author is that paramilitaries were started by legal land owners. That is only partially true. The MAS (Muerte a Secuestradores, Death to Kidnappers) was created by drug traffickers and is one of the first if not the first paramilitary movement which later started killing UP activists. The Medellin and Cali cartels were then the main founders and supporters of the first paramilitaries in this country. Proof of that is the hiring of Israely mercenaries to train them by Rodriguez-Gacha one especially nasty traffickers in the 90's. After that many land owners copied the scheme and many were forced to cooperate, not the other way round.
— posted 06/12/2010 at 17:32 by Nelson Vanegas
8 |
who is the author?
It is very interesting that the author's credentials are not shown. First of all he has an explanation for everything it seems and takes the retoric of foreign ONGs. I grew up in the conflict and all of us suffered the ravages of the Quindio days. It was not rich or poor, it was brother against brother. Conservative and liberal "bandidos" killing rich and poor. I can name both sides, by name. Land was taken away from middle class and rich. Families died. 350,000 when I was young.

Tirofijo was born in Quindio and he was an ugly killer, like "El mosco", "sangrenegra", they were not idea people, they were killers for hire to take land away, or crops away. Our farm was left without pigs or cattle, just like the FARC did until now. However, they change for the mordida since they did not know what to do with all the cattle and animals they stole.

The FARC grew to invite some young university students but they were mostly kidnapers of young farmers hired with a few dollars. They have never done anything for anybody. The Farc is just good in the eyes of ONGs and idealists, and Europeans that do not know better.

Believe me, I know them.
— posted 06/22/2010 at 01:48 by jd arbelaez
9 |
jd: please read
The author's credentials are listed in the "About The Author" box on the upper right. He also has no love lost for the FARC. I don't know why, but you seem to have assumed that he is a fan of theirs, a mistake you couldn't possibly make if you had actually read the story.
— posted 06/22/2010 at 14:01 by Leo
10 |
The endless war
The story of Colombia has been one of an endless war and in 2002 the country was at the verge of civil war,but since Mr. Uribe came to power, the number of killings and kidnappings have been reduced drastically and the economy (which grew 15% negatively from 1994 to 2002)is now on a very positive trend. Colombia has 20% debt to GDP ratio (one of the lowest in the world) and the prospects for grow and development are great. The new president, Juan Manuel Santos , was elected by 70% of the vote on his promise to follow Uribe's policies. There are still many problems, but the Colombian people have been shown the light and they are ready to follow on the path to peace, progress and democracy. Uribe's critics both in Colombia and internationally despise him because he doesn't pay much attention to them. He is constantly concerned about finding out the real needs of the people and finding solutions to improve on them.
— posted 07/08/2010 at 00:40 by Livano Guerrero
11 |
Rose Glasses and Rear View Mirror?
Luis Fernando, my friend, I am glad to find you are well in Virginia. While your overview of the Colombian conflict is certainly well informed, as I know you are very knowledgeable about Colombian history, I do believe it is not entirely well balanced and ignores may aspects of the very complex Colombian situation and its origins. Violence in Colombia predates the La Violencia period and Colombian armed struggle, political and otherwise, has been largely a constant in Colombia's history. While La Violencia was certainly a peak in Colombia's level of violence, the drug funded violence of the 80's and 90's was a another peak that was in many ways unrelated to that of the 40's and 50's (even if in many ways a continuum of the ever presence of violence in Colombian history.) However, there are certainly many reasons to hope that just as Colombia emerged in the 60's and 70's to a period of relative prosperity and modernization, that Colombia will also emerge during the next decade into a more modern and democratic society, even if all of the problems of violence and social inequality are not entirely overcome. Certainly many Colombians today believe that things are better than they have been in our lives. It is certainly very telling that the main battle facing Colombian society, and the main concern in all opinion polls, is the high level of unemployment, not insecurity.
— posted 07/10/2010 at 06:39 by Juan Pablo Reyes
12 |
Again. I find the best years in Colombia are ahead. Luis Fernando goes over a list of historical events that tries to plot into the future. It makes Luis just an academic trying to see the future. Let me explain:

Colombians inherited a group of families that ruled the country for years. as of late it has expanded a little. Just like the USA, and most Latin countries, a few families rule.

We have suffered from a country geographically separated. Over the last few years some roads and air transportation have mitigated the separation. We are still 90% by ourselves. Most places do not have roads, except for some connecting the major cities.

Third, the violence has been driven by the lack of government in the country -- until lately. When I was a kid in Quindio we had mostly no government. We took care of ourselves. We kept an eye on Tirofijo - El Mosco - Madrigales - Aguja - bolsallena -- all ended up leaving for Marquetalia and became heroes to many in the 1960s.

The paras, were bad guys just like the Marquetalia's Farc. They wanted to control zones, the vacuna, el sijuelo, la mordida, etc.

I left farms and run at night. I find Luis Fernando trying to connect things that have just correlation because of lack of central government and later degeneration by the FARC and Paras into "almost" multinationals.

I find Luis Fernando connecting dots of Chaos into a well organized nonsense. Colombia was out of control and is coming back. I still question his credentials. He has read the same kind of books, ONG articles, and rewrote from a list of "make no-sense" articles. I would like to see people that have different ways of writing instead of repeating old nonsense.

Sorry Luis.

— posted 07/21/2010 at 00:34 by jd Arbelaez
13 |
I asked myself a question and I took also the time to call some friends and family. What is new in Colombia today. Except for "El Chino" everyone agree that Colombia finally has government presence. We have our kids all over the farms with cell phones and radios paid by the "Uribe" government reporting funny stuff.It is not the limitation of supply and demand like in Venezuela, it is not "funny" brotherhood of Latin unity driven by the Correa government. It is about "someone" talking to neighbors about things that do not believe in the day to day living of rural Colombia.

Colombia is a country without highways, but it is a country with cell phones and radios, thanks to its topography and Presidente Uribe.

We have not been taken advantage of by strangers in four years. That is the new Colombia.

The country is finally becoming one, and the reason is communications. Communications is going to take Colombia to where it belongs. The central government is finally providing security. Rural Colombia is happy with Presidente Uribe.
— posted 07/21/2010 at 03:04 by JD ARBELAEZ
14 |
Probably the best synopsis on Colombia I've ever read. I don't feel qualified to comment on its accuracy, but it's very well written. Thank you.

http://www.themedellinmap.com
— posted 07/21/2010 at 16:58 by jamie
15 |
The endless war
For all of his eloquence, the author misses a very important fact in the recent history of Colombia. Right after the Cuban revolution, almost 60 years ago, Colombia became the primary target for the communists,led by Fidel Castro, as the next country in the continent to be turned into communism at nay cost. Thus, the country has been a victim of terrorism infiltration promoted by Castro and recently by his rogue regime in Venezuela. Against all odds, Colombia, led by President Uribe, has managed to fight back narco-terrorism and bring some sense of security to the country. In 2002, Colombia had a homicide rate of 66 per 100,000 population (the highest in the world) and in 2010, the rate of homicides has decreased to about 35 per 100,000 population. This is a fact acknowledged by the Colombian people but conveniently overlooked by the critics of President Uribe who blame him for all human right violations when in fact he is probably the politician that has done more to defend human rights in Colombia specially the most important right, the right to live in peace.
— posted 07/22/2010 at 01:34 by Livano Guerrero
16 |
Several innacuracies
Even though the author has written a rather "complete" article regarding Colombian history in the past 50 years, there are several points he has misinterpreted or just plainly misused. For instance, when he writes about the "balance trade deficits" he is trying to give the idea that Colombia's economy is on the brink of a collapse...nothing further from the truth. I'd like to think this doesn't have to do with a usual strategy of certain analysts which try to minimize President Uribe's work. Furthermore, the author decides not use real statistics regarding FARC's kidnapping industry (over 30,000 kidnapped over a 10 year span).....The misconceptions go on and forth, depicting FARC as a popular group of desperate peasants against a fascist violent government. This so called "violent government" has been eager to negotiate with terrorists from different backgrounds, actually negotiating a more stringent peace process than the one negotiated years ago by the left-wing M-19, whose guerrilleros never paid even 1 day of jail, never asked for forgiveness by its victims or paid any kind of monetary compensation.

Colombia's left wing groups have less victims and more victimizers than the author would like us to believe.
— posted 07/23/2010 at 02:06 by Emilio Merizalde
17 |
Ideologically motivated falsehoods
The author clearly has an ideological agenda or he would not misrepresent the situation in Colombia. The FARC do not survive because of any significant level of support in Colombia, not in the countryside and not in the cities. They survive with logistical and material support of neighboring governments, primarily Venezuela, and 'moral' support from (some) other Latin American countries and some non-governmental organizations, unions etc., primarily in Europe and North America. They are a ruthless group of murderers, kidnappers, narcotraficantes, and undoubtedly some idealists. Uribe is leaving office with record levels of popular support. I spent a month in Colombia not that long ago and found it a culturally vibrant place where people want to get on with their lives. Are there problems, serious problems (besides the FARC)? Clearly. One could mention the fact that it is one of the most unequal places in the hemisphere, with unacceptably high levels of poverty. Or that there are high levels of violence, including domestic violence. But negotiating with the FARC, accepting them as a legitimate political force would not solve these problems. Eliminating the FARC would at least solve that problem
— posted 07/24/2010 at 19:56 by Fred Bennett
18 |
Excellent Question
"Will Colombia survive the Violence?". Thanks to the author for pointing out what is most important today for the country's future. I have no doubt that today there are many Colombians in shameful silence because of their past support to paramilitary or guerrillas groups. And this is a good thing. Powerful interests in Colombia will continue to campaign on terror and fear, and they will always crave for our support to justify their means and hide their selfish intentions. That has always been an effective source of power for self-interested groups in human history, but one that in Colombia has locked us into a perpetual cycle of violence and injustice (and not just for the last 60 years). Strength in our democratic institutions is the only way out. We have almost all of our 200 years of history to tell us that. If not, we will again be condemned to repeat the cycle once more with perhaps new players, new guns, new pretexts. Its hard to be optimistic when so much history tells us otherwise. Yet again, the answer to the question is YES. Thanks Again, E
— posted 07/25/2010 at 20:22 by Fred
19 |
If you really want to understand this conflict.
It is very sad to see how people that has not real knowledge or experience could write about a conflict so extended and difficult.
At the same time is funny how he asks USA to see the conflict with a different way instead asking the people who are financing and collaborating with such a violent and non-ideal organization as the FARC. These so called revolutionaries don’t know anything about ideas, or respect for others, they had the opportunity to be part of the society but they chose to be the kings with the money of the drugs and became happy killing people with no regrets and no real motives.

But you have a clear example in front of you; look at Venezuela, in the past 10 years this poor country its in the worst situation ever. Govern by a communist that still thinking Cuba is an example, protecting The FARC and financing international terrorist.

The only thing that I will say to the people who read this article is, please read from different sources don’t believe everything that is shown to you, read international newspapers and if you’re really interested in understanding this conflict take the time to compare what is Colombia today with what it was 10 years ago.
— posted 07/27/2010 at 22:24 by paola
20 |
A resilient democracy
Yes, Colombia's democratic institutions has not only survived, they have come out of this horrible night strengthened. President Uribe reasserted the power of the constitutional state on the nation and, in doing so, gave the next generations of Colombians the breathing space to take the country forward. This accomplishment alone, in my opinion, justified its presidency; now the baton has been passed.
— posted 07/31/2010 at 22:21 by ignacio
21 |
Livano, it's more likely murders went up last year for the first time under Uribe - and by a whopping 16%.

The police data of 35 per 100,000 with a decrease of 300 or so murders overall stinks of an undercount, numerous credible sources have stated this.
— posted 08/06/2010 at 03:48 by Ted
22 |
Colombia: a changed nation
Colombia is a new nation. We are opening our farms, we are safe, we are moving forward regardless of most nations aiding and abetting against us. We have been the scum of the earth according to professors and "enlightened" ignorants. They have targetd us instead of the FARC. Americans, Europeans, "book" educated elitist that read history by going over political interactions, have failed to understand the root cause of the conflict: extremism by the FARC (formed by a group of Quindio criminals), support by European elitist, elitist ONG, american professors living in an air conditioned room.

Colombia is anew nation that is going to proof the world supporting FARC ignorants wrong.

— posted 08/07/2010 at 13:59 by jdarbelaez
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About the Author

Luis Fernando Medina is Assistant Professor of Politics at the University of Virginia and author of A Unified Theory of Collective Action and Social Change.

Charles Tilly, Violence, Terror, and Politics as Usual
Helena Cobban, The Legacies of Collective Violence
Claudio Lomnitz and Rafael Sánchez, United By Hate


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