title
PEAR Energy

The Soft Side of Regime Change

Trita Parsi’s A Single Roll of the Dice

A mural on the wall of the former U.S. Embassy, Tehran / [john] flickr(cc)

As America and Israel draw ever closer to open warfare against Iran, it is imperative to look for ways out of the current dangerous impasse. We have long supported a comprehensive approach to U.S.-Iranian realignment as the only way to put U.S.-Iranian relations on a more productive trajectory. But we do not understand how anyone can think that the Islamic Republic of Iran (any more than the People’s Republic of China) would negotiate its internal political transformation with the United States.

Yet this is precisely what Trita Parsi advocates in his A Single Roll of the Dice: Obama’s Diplomacy With Iran. Parsi, an independent scholar and president of the National Iranian American Council (NIAC), is no neoconservative hawk. He has, in the past, exhibited intellectual seriousness about Iran-related issues. His doctoral dissertation, turned into his first book, Treacherous Alliance: The Secret Dealings of Iran, Israel, and the United States was a valuable contribution, elucidating how, after the Cold War, Israeli leaders came to see Iran as the one Middle Eastern state capable of challenging their unconstrained freedom to use force first and disproportionately. This prompted an Israeli-initiated campaign to demonize the Islamic Republic in Washington that persists to today, with powerful effects on U.S. policy.

But A Single Roll of the Dice is another matter, blending distorted treatments of key issues and episodes into a deeply misleading account. Parsi promotes “soft” regime change, through what NIAC calls “Iran’s pro-democracy movement” and what he describes as “a peaceful path for changing Iran’s political system from within.” While Parsi and NIAC now favor U.S.-Iranian diplomacy—they did not in 2009—they hold that diplomacy must include “human rights as a core issue”, with the goal of “a world in which the United States and a democratic Iran”—no mention of the Islamic Republic—“enjoy peaceful, cooperative relations.”

At its core, this is neoconservatism without guns, effectively indistinguishable from the position of Iran-Contra figure and staunch regime-change advocate Michael Ledeen, who parts from other neoconservatives to side with Parsi and NIAC in opposing military action against Iran. Parsi and NIAC don’t want to attack the Islamic Republic or back terrorist campaigns against it by the opposition Mojahedin-e Kalq (MEK). In their view, these tactics are unlikely to turn Iran into a secular, liberal, and pro-Western country. Instead, they support human rights diplomacy buttressed by “targeted” sanctions and support for “pro-democracy” forces. But their ultimate goal is not fundamentally different from that of neoconservatives.

In a war-fevered environment, a book such as Parsi’s can make a difference. Ten years ago, another non-neoconservative expert made a high-profile argument for coercive regime change in a Middle Eastern country. Less than a year before the U.S. military went into Iraq, Kenneth Pollack—former CIA analyst, MIT Ph.D., and Democratic national security hand who served on Bill Clinton’s National Security Council—published the best-selling The Threatening Storm: The Case for Invading Iraq. It helped to legitimate Democratic support for war, even though every major reason it offered for invading Iraq was wrong—not just logically, but empirically. Pollack relied on a bevy of false “facts” (e.g., about Iraqi WMD) to support his argument.

A Single Roll of the Dice is not written as a case for war against Iran—something that Parsi claims he does not want. But, like Pollack, Parsi advances baseless evidence and agenda-driven analysis. And, in the same way that Pollack’s work helped pave the way for invading Iraq, Parsi’s book—by reinforcing conventional wisdom about Iranian politics and Obama’s Iran policy and counseling bad policy—raises the risk of another U.S.-initiated war in the Middle East.


Green-Colored Glasses
Parsi’s account of Obama administration policymaking is inextricably linked to his hopes for Iranian politics. In his telling, Obama’s initial interest in engagement “helped open up the political landscape in Iran,” encouraging those seeking change to unite behind Mir-Hossein Mousavi’s campaign against President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. But, Parsi holds, Obama’s quest to engage—and thereby fuel regime transformation—was undercut by the Islamic Republic’s fraudulent June 12, 2009 presidential election and the brutal suppression of the Green opposition movement that Mousavi championed. Now, Parsi argues, it is time to try engagement again—but on his and NIAC’s terms.

To sell this message, Parsi argues that the Green movement represents the majority of Iranians, systematically omitting data to the contrary. He never mentions that every methodologically sound poll done in connection with the election showed that Ahmadinejad’s re-election with just over 60 percent of the vote (officially he received 62 percent) was plausible. From the campaign’s official launch a month before the election until three months after it, thirteen scientific polls—including polls run by Western groups experienced at surveying Middle Eastern and Muslim societies—showed as much. Their findings were affirmed a year later by another methodologically sound poll done by U.S.-based Charney Research, run by a former pollster for Bill Clinton and Nelson Mandela. While some observers—including the admirable Hooman Majd—claimed respondents were surely lying, no large population lies consistently across fourteen different polls with scientifically designed samples.

If anyone was trying to pull a fast one with early claims of electoral victory, it was Mousavi.

Parsi makes claims about Iranian public opinion—e.g., that televised debates mobilized popular sentiment against Ahmadinejad and in favor of Mousavi—that are unsupported by any data at all, even unscientific polling, and are contradicted by all of the available high-quality data. His account of the election’s conduct is equally misleading. It opens with a producer at Press TV—the Islamic Republic’s English-language channel—receiving a call from the network’s director, an hour after polls closed, telling him to “announce that Ahmadinejad is ahead in the elections with a significant margin.” Parsi stresses that the Interior Ministry could not have counted all the handwritten ballots so quickly. The accusation reflects insufficient knowledge of basic facts. Vote counting is not done at the Ministry, but at polling stations, with results transmitted to Tehran. On election night in June 2009, Iranian media announced vote totals reported by the Ministry as they came in electronically from the 45,692 polling stations across the country. These were not comprehensive results—but then, neither are the returns reported by electoral authorities and television networks on election nights in the United States.

If anyone was trying to pull a fast one with early claims of victory, it was Mousavi. Parsi never mentions that, well before the alleged Press TV call, Mousavi had declared victory while polls were still open, citing official “information” he claimed to have received. Mousavi asserted that he’d won before, in all likelihood, any votes had been counted.

Evoking the Watergate break-in, Parsi describes how “ten security officers stormed” Mousavi’s campaign headquarters on election day to shut down its “media center”, which “completely disrupted the campaign’s operations.” The implication is that this suppressed the campaign’s ability to get its message out on election day, but Parsi omits the fact that it is illegal in Iran to conduct campaign activities on election day, as it is in France, Italy, Spain and at least twenty other countries.

More significantly, Parsi never explains how the supposed election fraud was perpetrated, a point on which Mousavi’s advisers could not agree. Surely it is incumbent on someone charging fraud—as candidate or scholar—to show how it occurred. Did someone stuff the ballot boxes? Was it done at the Interior Ministry, where vote counts were aggregated into national results? Parsi cites Mousavi’s letters of complaint to the Guardian Council—the body that, among other duties, oversees Iranian elections—as proof of wrongdoing. But, while Mousavi’s letters are full of allegations, he never documented the claims in them.

It should have been easy for Mousavi to back up his accusations. He had more than 40,000 election observers registered with the Interior Ministry, more than any other candidate. These observers were entitled to monitor polling stations, vote counts, and the final aggregation.

• In his letters to the Guardian Council, Mousavi never identified a single registered observer denied access to a polling station or barred from monitoring vote counting or aggregation at the Interior Ministry. His campaign named 73 individuals who were turned away from stations, but none was a registered observer.

• Furthermore, at every station, Mousavi’s observers signed off on, and were given hard copies of, forms showing the vote totals recorded on site and sent on to Tehran. The Interior Ministry published results from every polling station, and Mousavi never produced a single form showing results different from those released publicly. How was it that, in the months when Mousavi was encouraging people to protest on the streets, no observer—someone by definition committed to his cause—could provide a form to substantiate his stories of fraud?

• Likewise, Mousavi never identified a single observer barred from watching the aggregation of vote totals at the Interior Ministry. Reporting on its investigation into his complaints, the Guardian Council concluded that Mousavi was, on this point, making it up:

Representatives of the candidates were present and have observed all aspects of adding up and announcing the outcome of the election. Many of them left their desks at 6AM on Saturday, June 13…[C]reating doubt and uncertainty about the presence of the candidates’ representatives at the time of adding up the votes, based on the existing evidence, is unbelievable. It is therefore an unreal claim.

No Mousavi observer was ever brought forward to contradict this.

Parsi cites, literally, one source for his assertion that “[t]he election was rife with irregularities”: a “preliminary analysis” by Ali Ansari, a British academic, and colleagues, published nine days after the election. But Ansari and his coauthors did not even cover alleged irregularities in the election’s conduct. Rather, they sought to show that the results were out of line with historical patterns of Iranian voting behavior and statistically implausible. Even on this level, the paper has been thoroughly debunked, by us and others. In his “finished” analysis a year later, Ansari demurred on the fraud question, noting that the main issue was not whether the election was stolen, but Iran’s deeper political “crisis.”

Iranian-Americans changed their Twitter locations to Tehran in order to stoke Western perceptions of a social-media-facilitated revolution.

Parsi goes on to criticize Supreme Leader Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei for failing, in his Friday sermon a week after the election, “to declare his intent to accommodate the reformists and to compromise.” The observation is politically nonsensical; in electoral systems, losers are not “accommodated.” (How should George W. Bush—who lost the popular vote in 2000 and took the presidency through a 5-4 Supreme Court decision—have “accommodated” the losing side?)

More importantly, Parsi asserts, without citing the sermon’s text, that Ayatollah Khamenei “endorsed Ahmadinejad’s victory, rejected any notion of fraud, and warned against continued demonstrations”—grossly misconstruing what Khamenei actually said. While offering his judgment that it was impossible to manipulate the number of votes in Ahmadinejad’s landslide, Khamenei declared, “If there are some people who have doubts and documents, those doubts should be investigated . . . The legal channels are open. The channels of love and friendship are open. You should use legal and friendly methods.” At the same time, Khamenei made clear that, without evidence of fraud, he would not let the result be overturned by mob intimidation, stressing “It is a wrong perception . . . that through their street presence they will be creating a lever of pressure against the system . . . Giving in to demands under pressure is itself tantamount to the start of dictatorship.”

Khamenei’s words are an endorsement not of Ahmadinejad but of Iran’s electoral system. One can argue that Khamenei is lying or too confident in the system’s capacities, but it’s not true that he simply “endorsed Ahmadinejad [and] rejected any notion of fraud.” After Khamenei’s sermon, Mousavi’s failure to document his case severely eroded the Greens’ popular support.

Based on his assertions-packaged-as-argument, Parsi holds that Obama could not engage with an illegitimate and divided Iranian government, and was in any event constrained by backlash in the United States over the Iranian election. This is problematic, not least because it ignores Parsi’s own role in the events he analyzes—specifically, his role as a major organizer of anti-engagement backlash in 2009. In multiple television appearances and op eds following the election, Parsi demanded that Washington take a “tactical pause” from diplomacy—which had not even commenced—because the Islamic Republic was potentially on the verge of collapse. As he wrote in July 2009,

The Obama administration should avoid repeating the key mistake of the Bush administration, for which Iran was solely viewed through the prism of its nuclear program. Delaying nuclear talks a few months won’t make a dramatic difference to Iran’s nuclear program. It could, however, determine which Iran America and the region will be dealing with for the next few decades—one in which democratic elements strengthen over time, or one where the will of the people grows increasingly irrelevant to Iran’s decision-makers.

This reflects a gentler version of the ideological dynamic that, as the late Tony Judt pointed out, enabled liberal support for invading Iraq: “A commitment to the abstract universalism of ‘rights’—and uncompromising ethical stands taken against malign regimes in their name”—leading “all too readily to the habit of casting every political choice in binary moral terms.” While noting how Obama’s efforts at engagement were constrained by pressure from allies (Britain, France, Saudi Arabia, and Israel) and domestic constituencies (e.g., Republicans and the pro-Israel lobby), Parsi overlooks arguably the most self-interested constituency of all: Iranian-Americans, many of whom are aggrieved against the Islamic Republic from which they or their families fled. After the election, thousands of Iranian-Americans changed their Twitter locations to Tehran in order to stoke Western perceptions that a social-media-facilitated revolution had broken out in Iran.

In the run up to the Iraq invasion, Iraqi expatriates—including Ahmad Chalabi, Kanan Makiya (another “scholar-activist”) and members of the Iraqi National Congress—helped bring America to war on false, even manufactured grounds. Unlike Chalabi and company, Parsi and NIAC do not advocate military action. But by depicting an Islamic Republic that does not follow his preferred path as illegitimate, with no evidence that most Iranians living in Iran want what he wants, Parsi is facilitating a potential U.S. war he professes to oppose.


Designed to Fail
From his unsubstantiated premise that the Iranian government is fraudulent, Parsi condemns the Obama administration’s decision to start talks with Tehran in October 2009, accusing it of privileging “the nuclear file at the expense of the human rights situation.” Otherwise, though, he is remarkably uncritical of the administration’s diplomatic approach. His analysis is compromised, in part, by personal links to the approach; Parsi was one of the non-governmental specialists the administration consulted while formulating policy—something he neglects to reveal.

In Parsi’s account, the president meant well, but his “vision and political space” for diplomacy were steadily undermined by “the actions of the Iranian government itself.” To sustain this, Parsi whitewashes the administration’s fundamentally duplicitous intentions. Obama did not engage to seek better relations but to set the stage for more coercive measures, perhaps even military force. That, not domestic politics in Iran, is why diplomacy failed.

The administration’s initial deliberations were anything but the well-intentioned exercise in strategy formulation that Parsi makes them out to be. Even the decision to have a broad-based interagency process was a sign Obama was not serious about rapprochement. Richard Nixon and Henry Kissinger have recounted that, as they came to office in 1969 intent on refashioning policy toward the People’s Republic of China (which candidate Obama sometimes cited as a model for dealing with Iran), they knew that holding a normal interagency process would kill any chance of success. Working closely with probably not more than ten people, they remade the country’s China policy, largely in secret. Allies and domestic constituencies found out very late in the process. The result—the 1972 opening to the People’s Republic—was arguably the greatest achievement in U.S. diplomacy since World War II.

President Obama signaled that he would not spend appreciable political capital making diplomacy with Iran work.

By contrast, while Obama made a stab at rhetorical outreach to the Islamic Republic—most notably in a three-minute video in March 2009 commemorating Nowruz, the Persian new year—there was no serious interest in accommodating core Iranian interests. Instead of crafting strategy, Obama had a “policy review,” the results of which were certain once Dennis Ross was put in charge of it. By giving Ross—a longtime foreign policy hand with close ties to the Israel lobby, which opposes engagement—the lead, Obama signaled he would not spend appreciable political capital making diplomacy work, a pattern he has displayed on other security issues on which he took forward-leaning positions in his presidential campaign, such as terrorism detainees and the state secrets doctrine.

Ross favored what he called “engagement with pressure,” now enshrined as the “dual-track” strategy. Parsi is skeptical about this strategy, but he misses the real point—the strategy, as crafted by Ross, was never intended to facilitate productive diplomacy. It was intended to fail. As we wrote in The New York Times in May 2009, three weeks before Iran’s June 2009 presidential election:

In conversations with Mr. Ross before Mr. Obama’s election, we asked him if he really believed that engage-with-pressure would bring concessions from Iran. He forthrightly acknowledged that this was unlikely. Why, then, was he advocating a diplomatic course that, in his judgment, would probably fail? Because, he told us, if Iran continued to expand its nuclear fuel program, at some point in the next couple of years President Bush’s successor would need to order military strikes against Iranian nuclear targets. Citing past ‘diplomacy’ would be necessary for that president to claim any military action was legitimate.

This jibed well with Obama’s preference for diplomacy as insubstantial rhetoric. After Ayatollah Khamenei responded to Obama’s Nowruz message by stating “You change, and we will change as well”—putting the onus on Obama to show seriousness about realigning relations—the new president no longer had any real commitment to engagement (if he ever had much). A month later, Obama approved the policy review’s engagement-with-pressure plan. All of this happened months before Iran’s 2009 presidential election.

Consider some of the facts that Parsi misconstrues, misrepresents, or ignores in arguing that Iranian intransigence, rather than a lack of real commitment in the White House, is to blame for the failure of diplomacy. He writes that the administration knew Iran would not agree to stop uranium enrichment at the 3–4 percent level required to fuel normal power reactors, and decided not to demand it as a negotiating outcome. The claim—for which Parsi has no direct sources—is untrue. While some U.S. officials recognized Iran’s unwillingness to abandon enrichment, there was never a consensus or presidential decision to accept safeguarded enrichment in Iran; three administration officials have confirmed this to us.

Parsi doesn’t mention that the administration refused to support revising the multilateral “incentives” package for nuclear talks on the table when Obama came to office, though it was clear that Tehran viewed the package as woefully inadequate in its treatment of Iranian security concerns. This is not the posture of an administration serious about realigning relations.

Parsi also writes, “The Obama Administration sought to reduce Iran’s sense of threat in order to kick-start negotiations”—another false claim. Parsi argues that by designating the Kurdish separatist movement PJAK as a terrorist organization in February 2009, the administration sent a positive “signal” to Iran; he chastises Tehran for not appreciating it. In fact, PJAK was so designated as a gesture to Turkey, not Iran; at the same time, the administration declined to list Jundallah, a more lethal Balochi separatist group. U.S. intelligence officials have told us Jundallah was not named because U.S. intelligence and the military wanted to maintain contact with it. (Washington eventually designated Jundallah in November 2010, nearly two years into Obama’s presidency and months after Iran had captured and executed the group’s leader.)

More broadly, Obama did nothing to rein in anti-Iranian covert programs. Indeed, leaked documents show that such programs—including ties to groups whose actions in Iran, if taken in Israel or many other countries, would be condemned in Washington as terrorism—intensified after Obama came in. This is also not the posture of a president serious about rapprochement. Parsi ignores it, too.

Parsi’s unwillingness to confront the duplicity driving the Ross-crafted, presidentially-approved strategy persists in his treatment of diplomacy surrounding the refueling of the Tehran Research Reactor (TRR, originally supplied by the United States to Iran under the Shah in the 1960s). This issue led to the “single roll of the dice” in Parsi’s title, the one episode in which U.S. and Iranian diplomats engaged (briefly) on a substantive matter. In June 2009—before the presidential election—Iran asked the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) for help in securing new fuel for the TRR under the Agency’s supervision, for the purpose of making medical isotopes. Tehran meant this as a confidence-building measure. As Ahmadinejad and other officials said, if Iran could buy the fuel, it would not need to begin enriching uranium to nearly 20 percent, the level required by the TRR (and well short of, albeit closer to, the 90 percent or higher level needed for nuclear weapons).

By any reasonable standard, it should not have been a problem to refuel a safeguarded reactor never implicated in proliferation activities. But, rather than treat Tehran’s request as a technical matter—as the Reagan Administration did in 1987 when Iran last went on the open market to purchase fuel for the TRR, from Argentina—the Obama administration came back with a convoluted plan to take most of Iran’s stockpile of low-enriched uranium (LEU, enriched to the 3-4 percent level) with a promise of new fuel perhaps two years later, saying that such a “swap” would put off any possibility of an Iranian “breakout” for at least eighteen months. Iran accepted in principle but wanted to negotiate details to ensure it received new fuel, a stance portrayed by the administration—and Parsi—as showing how divided and paralyzed Iran’s leaders were after the June election.

U.S. diplomacy with Iran will only work if it is based on acceptance of the other nation as an enduring entity with legitimate interests.

This is Western projection, not reality. Tehran was consistent about its terms for a deal, including either a simultaneous exchange of LEU for new fuel or the deposit of Iranian LEU in a third country that would return it if new fuel were not provided by an agreed-upon time. Washington spun this as rejection. The problem, though, was not in Tehran, but in U.S. insistence that the offer was a take-it-or-leave-it proposition, which the IAEA’s then-director general, Nobel laureate Mohammed ElBaradei, said scuttled a deal. The administration was more interested in laying a predicate for new sanctions than concluding an agreement.

Parsi’s uncritical reprise of White House talking points continues in his treatment of Iran’s decision, in February 2010, to begin enriching to the near-20-percent level needed to make isotopes for cancer patients. The decision, according to Parsi, “fueled suspicions that Tehran indeed sought to build nuclear weapons.” He fails to note that there was then, as there has been intermittently for several years, a worldwide shortage of medical isotopes, including in the United States. This situation supports Iran’s decision to produce them indigenously, under IAEA scrutiny, rather than rely on a market that could not even adequately supply Western countries.

The administration’s duplicity became more glaring when Brazil and Turkey sought to help the parties conclude a swap. In official letters to Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and then-Brazilian President Lula Inácio da Silva in April 2010, Obama accepted Turkey’s offer to hold Iranian LEU in escrow, but stipulated that Tehran would have to send the LEU out in one batch, at the start of the process. U.S. officials conveyed skepticism that Iran would accept, telling Turkish and Brazilian counterparts that, if they failed to reach a deal with these terms, Washington would insist that Turkey and Brazil—non-permanent UN Security Council members at the time—support new UN sanctions. A month later, Erdoğan and Lula went to Iran and brokered the Tehran Declaration, which remains a model for diplomacy on the nuclear issue: in return for recognizing its right to enrich, Iran agreed to the terms detailed in Obama’s letters. But, while the Declaration met Obama’s conditions, the administration rejected it and, the next month, pushed the Security Council to adopt new sanctions, which Turkey and Brazil voted against.

Parsi papers this over as bad timing; Obama had already promised Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu to seek new sanctions before Iran accepted. In fact, the White House never intended to make a deal. Turkish and Brazilian officials have told us they believe the administration deliberately set up Erdoğan and Lula to fail, falsely confident that Tehran could not accept Obama’s terms.


Coming to Terms—With Reality and the Islamic Republic
Today, the administration is working with Europeans and others to sanction the Central Bank of Iran and cut off the flow of Iranian oil to international markets. It has also come ever closer to declaring regime change the ultimate goal of its Iran policy.

The United States cannot afford another failure of analysis and decision-making like that which culminated in the 2003 invasion of Iraq, when many Democrats and more than a few liberal human rights advocates endorsed the Bush administration’s folly. Parsi wants to persuade us that “the current stalemate has more to do with the domestic political limitations Obama and his Iranian counterparts face than it does with a genuine failure of diplomacy.” We agree that “the limited diplomatic encounters between Iran and the U.S. in 2009 and 2010 cannot be characterized as an exhaustion of diplomacy”, but Parsi’s claim that “the Iranian government’s internal and external conduct” after “the fraudulent election of 2009” was the main source of Obama’s difficulties is neither an accurate nor genuinely alternative narrative. Instead of Obama’s diplomacy failing because the Islamic Republic is irrational or implacably hostile to the United States—standard neoconservative explanations—Parsi attributes the failure largely to the Iranian government’s illegitimacy. The notion that the Islamic Republic is illegitimate is already well established in neoconservative rhetoric; Parsi’s view of Iranian politics simply provides mainstream validation for it.

Moreover, Parsi’s kid-gloves treatment of Obama’s policy does nothing to highlight fatal deficiencies in the U.S. approach. Diplomacy will not work until Americans understand that their country needs rapprochement with Iran. The U.S. position in the Middle East is in free fall, Tehran has been the biggest beneficiary of the decline. In this climate, a U.S. war on Iran would be costly for everyone involved, but the consequences would be particularly devastating for the United States—strategically, economically, and morally.

Too many American elites think that the Arab Spring has given Washington, in Parsi’s words, “an opportunity to reinvent its leadership in the region”, putting Tehran “on the defensive and significantly reduc[ing] its ability to position itself as indispensable to U.S. interests in Iraq, Afghanistan, and beyond.” Even more comfort themselves with the delusion that the same forces that deposed a U.S. ally in Egypt can bring down the present Iranian order, too.

This misunderstands the Islamic Republic’s political roots and the Arab Spring, both fundamentally grounded in popular aspirations to independence. Whatever frustrations Iranians may have with the existing system, the overwhelming majority recognize it as their system, made by Iranians rather than outsiders. Policymakers in Tehran calculate, correctly, that any government in the Arab world that becomes more representative of its people’s views and values will become less enthusiastic about strategic cooperation with the United States and Israel and more open to Iran’s message of independence. That is why the Islamic Republic is not merely unthreatened by the Arab Spring, which it calls an Islamic awakening, but optimistic about what it portends for the relative positions of Iran and the United States in coming years.

U.S. diplomacy with Tehran will only work if it is based on the same foundations as America’s opening to China in the early 1970s: acceptance of the other nation as an enduring entity with legitimate interests and pursuit of real rapprochement through the reciprocal accommodation of each side’s core interests. This is something no U.S. president, even Barack Obama, has been prepared to do—which is why the Obama administration still cannot face reality on enrichment. Such an approach is impossible so long as Washington demands surrender or indulges fantasies of remaking the Islamic Republic into something more palatable to U.S. constituencies.

Unfortunately, Parsi wants U.S. policy to go in exactly the opposite direction, urging that “other security issues [besides the nuclear issue] be put on the agenda, but perhaps more importantly Washington should also give the human rights situation in Iran significant prominence.” To avoid the very war Parsi says he opposes, the United States will have to pursue rapprochement with the Islamic Republic as it is, not as some—including, it would seem, Trita Parsi—wish it to be.



Editor’s Note: Trita Parsi and Ali Ansari have responded to this review.




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Comments

1 |
Parsi(to my knowledge a non-American citizen)ought to be ashamed of himself. The Leveretts are correct to point out all of these flaws in his work. It is hoped these flaws in this work receive maximum exposure.
— posted 01/31/2012 at 21:40 by Pirouz
2 |
Flynt and Hillary Leverett, Apologists for Evil
Flynt and Hillary Leverett have become surely nothing more and nothing less but the most grotesque of regime apologists and of apologists for pure evil. Shame on them for their lack of any sort of moral backbone.

Is there any excuse in the book they won’t offer to the evil regime which is occupying Iran against the will of the Iranian people? I think not..
— posted 01/31/2012 at 21:58 by Sassan
3 |
*IGNORING SCIENCE
"He never mentions that every methodologically sound poll done in connection with the election showed that Ahmadinejad’s re-election with just over 60 percent of the vote"

Are Flynt and Hillary Leverett this naive or do they think the rest of us are? "Polls" are not scientifically valid and reliable when taken inside of totalitarian societies in which people are afraid to speak their minds and voices for fear of arrest, torture, rape, and execution.

Shame on the Leverett's for their dubious claims in being true campaigners in support of the evil Islamic Republic regime instead of supporting the plight and aspirations of the Iranian people. You can be anti-war (as Noam Chomsky is) but still support the aspirations and human rights of the Iranian people. Instead, the Leverett's join the likes of George Galloway in being advocates for the most evil and ruthless of tyrants and radical madmen.
— posted 01/31/2012 at 22:11 by Sassan
4 |
Leveretts are wrong on 2009 election results and events
Flynt Leverett and Hillary Mann Leverett are simply wrong on asserting that Ahmadineajd won the election by votes.

While they come up with 14 poll results and "evidence" that nothing happened at the poll stations, would they also opine why Iranians should have voted Ahmadinejad into office again after all the economic miseries, not to mention cultural and social tragedies, which happened in the first 4 years he was in the office?

Ahmadineajd came to the office with promises.Not one or two promises, many of them.

When Ahmadinejad was running in 2005, he went on TV and said, Iranian government must not interfere on how Iranians dress themselves. Now, his government is issuing one plan every month about making female teachers wear a uniform, students wear a uniform, men should not have Western haircuts, women should be modest.

Also, Ahamdineajd promised to bring the oil money to Iranians homes in 2005.

At the end of his first term, Iran was in a much worse condition than the whole 8 years of Khatami, the former president. U want data, just google it! Middle class was crashed in his first 4 years. Villagers were promised a lot, but did not see anything.

Flynt Leverett and Hillary Mann Leverett should be thinking Iranians are stupid.No, I am sorry, Flynt Leverett and Hillary Mann Leverett should be thinking Americans are stupid, so Leveretts come up with such shallow reasons to prove why 2009 election was legitimate.

There is no one single reason why the majority of Iranians would have wanted Ahmadinead to serve a second term with all the terrible things he did in his first 4 years. But, Iranians had, and now have a lot more, to want Ahmadinejad gone from any position of power in Iran.

The only reason Ahamdinejad was elected to office and is still not impeached by the Parliament is just because Khamenei does not want him gone yet.
— posted 01/31/2012 at 22:28 by Mangool
5 |
The Leverett's advocate the surrender of inherent values??
"U.S. diplomacy with Iran will only work if it is based on acceptance of the other nation as an enduring entity with legitimate interests."

That would mean surrendering to evil against every core value vital and inherent in our moral conscience. This is a regime which at its policy wants to bring havoc, chaos, and death throughout the world through their "hidden imam" ideology. This is a regime that as a matter of policy, rapes our young sisters in prison before executing them so that they don't "die as virgins". This is a regime that is among the most brutal and tyrannical in the world and their end-of-the-world ideology at their very core puts into risk not only the national security of U.S. and Israel, but rather ultimately with the survival and advancement of human civilization.

Bottom line: this regime must go and we must never surrender to evil.
— posted 01/31/2012 at 22:31 by Sassan
6 |
Who is advising Parsi? Is he still close to Dr. Ramazani? Hard to believe that Ramazani would permit the sloppy analysis that Parsi offered up.

What little I know of the Iranian ex pat community, it is a fractious bunch -- not for nothing is Iran shaped like a cat. In the back-and-forth between the Israeli and American Jewish communities over Israel's actions, diaspora Jews who are outside the Lobby mindset and network feel detached from Israel, and Israelis demand that diaspora Jews either support Likud right or wrong, or they are self-hating Jews.

Iranians seem to have an opposite approach -- ex pat Iranians seem eager to see their homeland bombed, and are eager for their homeland to capitulate to Israeli demands. It is my perception than many ex pat Iranians are deeply ashamed of ie. allusions to Ahmadinejad's holocaust comments and the possibility of being tagged 'antisemitic,' and have taken on themselves the same mantle of holocaust guilt that Israel has burdened the west with and uses to such great advantage. This is an emotional and irrational mistake on the part of Iranians.
From my membership in NIAC I perceive that NIAC does what its membership requests. Has NIAC been hijacked by what my East Coast Iranian friends call indolent and shameful West Coast Iranians, who are more concerned with piling up wealth and less with the genuine security concerns of their mother country?

Disappointed with Parsi. And NIAC. Wonder what or who is behind Parsi's agenda.
— posted 01/31/2012 at 22:43 by Landon
7 |
Don't mind Sassan. She's a Tehrangeles teenie weenie who's besotted by Seth the IDF stud.

IDF and MFA supply Sassan's talking points, she regurgitates them on command, and her big brave acne-faced soldier gives her a big smooch. XX
— posted 01/31/2012 at 22:50 by Sabzi
8 |
Notice the reason and rationality of the ignorant
They resort to ad hominem attacks and non sequitur remarks in order to try to deflect the reality of the issues. In reality, they beautifully demonstrate to the rest of us who encompass ourselves with reason and rationality their very own ignorance.
— posted 01/31/2012 at 23:02 by Sassan
9 |
Mangool, there's a difference between an election and governing. Your dissatisfaction with Ahmadinejad's governing does not invalidate his election. Obama won by an uncontested vote, but today he has an extremely low approval rating, even by those who were his most ardent supporters. And talk about failing to carry out promises! Wow, Obama has disappointed at every turn, not least in his dealing with Iran, and his sell-out to Dennis Ross and Israeli interests.

Non-Iranian Americans have a critical interest in US-Iran relations, and a growing number are highly resentful of people like Dennis Ross who put Israel's interests ahead of American interests when it comes to US policy with Iran.

Many Americans perceive that a US rapprochement with Iran is in the best interests of the American people. Dennis Ross has placed himself as a wedge against that rapprochement, and now Parsi seems to be doing the same thing.
If the situation with Iran erupts, Americans will vent their outrage on Dennis Ross and the people whose interests he represents.
Similarly, Americans will vent their outrage at Parsi and NIAC and their constituency.
I hope Trita Parsi responds to the Leveretts thorough analysis and explains himself. If I recall correctly, he broke off writing and returned to Washington as tensions flared between US and Iran. Perhaps that interruption put him off his stride. Please Dr. Parsi, an explanation. We want to support the Iranian people as sovereign and independent, not Iraqed and devastated.
— posted 01/31/2012 at 23:03 by Fiorangela
10 |
CASMII, the Campaign Against Sanctions and Military Intervention in Iran, has published a Plan of Action to STOP a catastrophic war against Iran. You can view it HERE:

http://www.campaigniran.org/casmii/index.php?q=node/12102

War is not a rational and reasonable response to conflict between human beings and states. Here are some of the actions CASMII suggests to prevent war with Iran:

1. Please provide your contact details on the website for CASMII and Stop the War Coalition (STWC).

2. For the full facts of the Iran-West standoff, you can


· study the document:

Key Reasons against Sanctions and Military Intervention in Iran
on CASMII’s website www.campaigniran.org.

· read CASMII’s website for the latest developments every day.

3. You can organise local meetings with support from CASMII and STWC to raise awareness and call for action against the impending war.

4. You can propose resolutions at your student union, trade union and other organisations to oppose the war drive and promote the win-win strategy against it.

5. You can write letters to newspapers, local and national MPs and politicians, including David Cameron and Nick Clegg, to challenge the anti Iran lies and distortions, question their evidence and hold them accountable.

6. You can organise delegations with your leading figures to the 10 Downing Street and demand an end to sanctions and the war drive on Iran.

7. You can book an appointment to go and see and lobby your MP to raise the issue at the House of Commons and support a motion to halt the sanctions, the war preparations and the covert war against Iran as publicly declared by Sir John Sawyers the head of MI6 in 2010.

— posted 01/31/2012 at 23:15 by Sassan
11 |
The Leveretts' critique of Trita Parsi's arguments is on the mark. The key points raised by Trita Parsi in his book are not surprising and they follow the same pattern of intellectual dishonesty as some of his previous works.
— posted 01/31/2012 at 23:38 by m.t.
12 |
*Note the person plagiarizing my name and attempting to take on my identity
How pathetic can these irrational, ignorant, and pro-Islamic regime apologists and henchmen be?

"— posted 01/31/2012 at 23:15 by Sassan"

That was NOT me.
— posted 01/31/2012 at 23:45 by Sassan
13 |
Here is the introduction to CASMII's well-reasoned plan of action to prevent war against Iran:

http://www.campaigniran.org/casmii/index.php?q=node/12102

"Saturday, January 28, 2012

The US, France and UK prodded by Israel are determined to replay their criminal and illegal invasion of Iraq in order to bring about a regime change in Iran this time under the false pretext of the non-existent nuclear weapons programme in the country. The western sanctions and the oil embargo against Iran are an act of war that will lead to a military conflict with catastrophic consequences for the people of Iran, the Middle East and the whole world.

Both the US and Israel’s intelligence agencies and the defense ministers of both countries have confirmed in the past month that there is no indication of a military dimension, nor a decision to develop a nuclear weoponisation programme in Iran. The IAEA Chief I, Yukiya Amano, admitted to German Parliamentarians this week that there was not any credible evidence that Iran’s civilian programme has a military dimension. Despite these admissions, the war drums are beating to the chorus of hawks and their mouthpieces in the media.

We need to act now to avert this lose-lose western strategy and promote the win-win strategy of negotiating in good faith with Iran, without the pre-condition for Iran to halt its uranium enrichment for civilian use, which is its inalienable right under the Non-Proliferation Treaty.

Here is an Action Plan for you to help to defeat the western belligerent lose-lose strategy and promote the peaceful win-win strategy; the aim is to raise awareness and mobilise the public, and bring a motion against sanctions and war on Iran in the House of Commons to defeat the current hawkish stance of the government. A similar action programme with respect to local anti-war organisations should be adopted in the US, France and Germany."

copied in full from the CASMII website

Please do whatever you can to prevent a repeat of the irrational actions of the US, Israel, and Great Britain that resulted in the dismemberment of Iraq.
— posted 02/01/2012 at 00:20 by Sassan
14 |
^ Once again, the loser above pretending to be me.
— posted 02/01/2012 at 01:17 by Sassan
15 |
Very sad indeed
for people who consider themselves Iranian patriots to encourage the US and Israel to make war on their own homeland. I can understand their objection to the reactionary religious clique that rules, I can understand their advocacy of the overthrow of those rabid mullahs, but I can't understand how they would encourage the US to make war against the entire Iranian people. The US and Israel do not make nice in war. They will kill on industrial scales. Any way one looks at it, Any Iranian that supports such action is committing treason and a good reason for such traitors to be excluded from Iranian politics.
— posted 02/01/2012 at 01:33 by ToivoS
16 |
Ron Paul Exposes Neo Conservatives A.K.A. NEOCONS (2003)
- When Character Doesn't Matter

Watch video here: http://chasvoice.blogspot.com/2012/01/ron-paul-exposes-neo-conservatives-aka.html
— posted 02/01/2012 at 01:59 by Charleston Voice
17 |
Key Reasons Against Sanctions and Military Intervention in Iran
source: http://www.campaigniran.org/casmii/index.php?q=node/12085

". . .Contrary to the myth propagated through the western media, it is the US and its European allies which are defying the international community by their rejection of negotiation with Iran without pre-conditions. Their absence of good faith is evidenced by the demand that Iran concedes the main point of negotiations, namely, suspension of enrichment of uranium - which is Iran’s legitimate right under the Non-Proliferation Treaty - before the negotiations even begin. . . ."

"IRAN’S NUCLEAR PROGRAMME: FACTS AND LIES

1. Iran has a right to develop nuclear technology for peaceful purposes.

2. There is no evidence of a nuclear weapons programme in Iran.

3. Iran's need for nuclear Energy and Technology is real.

4. The alleged "crisis" over Iran's nuclear programme is manufactured.

5. Iran has met its obligations under the Nuclear non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).

6. Iran has given unprecedented concessions on its nuclear programme.

7. The Western alliance has not tried true diplomacy and relies instead on threats.

8. UN SECURITY COUNCIL INVOLVEMENT TOTALLY UNJUSTIFIED
9. WESTERN HYPOCRISY

10. Iran has not threatened Israel or attacked another country

11. Iran is under constant threat of illegal foreign intervention.

12. The 2009 Iranian Presidential elections and its aftermath are being exploited by pro-war forces


13. The Obama Administration has backtracked on its own engagement pledge and now actively opposes peaceful solutions.

14. SANCTIONS A PRELUDE TO WAR

15. THE THREAT OF MILITARY ATTACK ON IRAN IS IMMINENT









— posted 02/01/2012 at 02:32 by Sassan
18 |
To the troll above
^ It is obvious with the content of your rabid posts that it is not me that is posting. Why do you continue? Is it that you lack intellect and character as is quite apparent with so much of the irrationality that composes your side? Just think about it: you have such scum as George Galloway on your side. That in itself speaks volumes.
— posted 02/01/2012 at 03:42 by Sassan
19 |
Cyrus The Great would be rolling in his grave..
Cyrus The Great would be rolling in his grave right now. Iran has become a country ruled by a religious and perverse elite whom is allowed to marry off 9 & 12-year old girls. In the case of the latter, no court permission is required and in the case of the former, court permission is required but it is little bit more than a formality. In fact, this is a regime whom grants "temporary wives" or "sigheh" dictating basically an unlimited number of "wives" ranging from mere minutes, hours, days, or years at the request of the man. In addition, his permanent wife (or wives) is not even required to be notified. Not too many years ago there was a scandal in Karaj in which Mullahs were using this "sigheh" with prostitutes. In addition, this is a regime that rapes our young sisters before executing them so that they don't "die as virgins". To force the marriage, they partake in forced sigheh's against these young girls and afterwards they are summarily hung or sent to the firing squad.

The Leverett's want us to accept the "legitimacy" of this type of evil? The same evil that has threatened to wipe our other member nations and dabbling with holocaust denying? The same regime that professes their hard work in "preparing" for the "return of the hidden imam" which by their very own definition, ideology, and beliefs means the prerequisite of "reconquering Jerusalem" in a global jihad in which 2/3rd of humanity perishes through death, havoc, chaos and famine? IT is not solely in the national security interests of the United States and Israel to be against this regime, but in the very survival and advancement of humanity itself. This is of particular importance when we consider the fact that we now live in an era of apocalyptic weaponry when mass casualties can take place faster than an eye blink. We no longer face an enemy like the Soviet Union which is absolutely true - but the Soviets didn't want to bring an end to humanity. This is a regime that actively is run with the inherent ideologies and beliefs of this ultimate end and desire.The Leverett's consider such maniacs as "rational" actors?? I ask two questions of them: what world are they living in and what type of crack cocaine are they smoking?
— posted 02/01/2012 at 03:43 by Sassan
20 |
This sounds too familiar
Sassan said: "IT is not solely in the national security interests of the United States and Israel to be against this regime, but in the very survival and advancement of humanity itself"

Bibi, are you trolling, dude?
— posted 02/01/2012 at 04:56 by Genie
21 |
The trolls rule
Even the Sassan troll is trolled. It is so sad that formerly Iranian patriots (who obviously live in the US) are encouraging are encouraging the US and Israel to engage in aggressive war against their own homeland.

These expatriotes do not deserve out support.

I think what we are seeing here is traditional class warfare. The upper classes are appealing to the imperialist forces to give them back their power. The British in the peak of their colonial power used the upper classes to control the lower classes.

It is amazing to see all of these Iranian aristocrats asking the US to restore them to power. Sorry upper class Iranians, the US is not going to restore you to power.
— posted 02/01/2012 at 05:18 by ToivoS
22 |
retired,engineer
Anyone interested in facts regarding the situation in Iran and its impact on international politics should read and trust what well informed people with broad knowledge of the internal political machinery of Iran such as Flynt and Hillary mann Leverett and Kam Zarrabi say on their Websites. These folks take many historical events in their calculations and judgements regarding the issue.
My advice to the younger Iranian/Americans generation and those with specific grudges against the present regime in Iran is to broaden your scope of vision and don't reject off-hand what these informed people have to say. Neither of these honest individuals are appologist for the present regime in Iran.
— posted 02/01/2012 at 05:38 by Max
23 |
IRI Apologists, Leveretts and Trita Parsi, duel it out
The treacherous alliance of Leveretts and Trita Parsi and their apologetic points of view is well known to Iranian-Americans. Leveretts shamelessly claimed that Ahmadinejad won fair and square and legitimized their claims by a concocted Zogby poll commissioned through Terror Free Tomorrow with ties to Woodrow Wilson Center (Trita Parsi has ties and was a Policy Fellow at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars in Washington DC).



Parsi is no saint and his list of lies, tax evasions, Swedish bank account to hide his income, defrauding the federal government and working with the former Convicted Congressmen Bob Ney angers many Iranians. Recently, another regime apologist, Ardeshir Ommani (AIFC) accused NIAC and Trita Parsi of "telling more than 800 lies in one months alone."

I am happy to see them at each other's throats much like inside the regime after Iran's sham elections. But one thing they all fail to accept is their their concoction for Iran is a failed recipe designed to ensure the survival of theocracy first and foremost and the survival of a certain faction of the regime. No thanks! Iran deserves better, Iranians deserve more!

PDMI has always maintained that Islamic Republic (be it Khamenei, Ahmadinejad or Mousavi) cannot be reformed (they are all criminals with Iranian blood on their hands) and regime change is the only option fro Iran.

I guess Leverettes will not be inviting Trita to dinner to wine and dine with their oil barons anymore! So sad! ..... NOT!

Arash Irandoost, Founder,
Pro democracy Movement of Iran
www.pdmi.org
www.pdmiran.org
— posted 02/01/2012 at 10:14 by arash irandoost
24 |
another great article by the leveretts. Thank you for your principled stance. A rare quality these days.
— posted 02/01/2012 at 10:47 by Neo
25 |
The corrupt analysis in the book doesn't surprise me a bit. Parsi is an ambitious man with a Cold War mindset he got from mentors like Brzezinski. As an immigrant rights campaigner in DC, i've for a decade known Parsi personally and stayed in close touch with his staff. I realized long ago that - though he is strictly speaking neither warlike nor unethical - Parsi will cleverly do what it takes to be welcome in "respectable" media circles and "stay in the game". His main motive is to gain and broker (for selected others) access to Congressmen and think tank figures who count so wealthy Iranian expats continue funding his NGO. It's for the most part their interests that he promotes, probably in the hope that they'll back him if he runs for public office.
— posted 02/01/2012 at 11:23 by Fairis Fair
26 |
IRI Apologists, Leveretts and Trita Parsi, duel it out: ديگ به ديگ ميگه؛ روت سياه
There are so many absurd claims by Levretts, one does not really know where to begin.

There is a saying in Persian:

ديگ به ديگ ميگه؛ روت سياه


Just about every paragraph reflect perverted thinking of Levrettes and Parsi.

Elections are a sham , period- get over it.

Press TV is a propaganda machine for the IRGC, period and not a news channel.

Here is most recent article on Press TV:

Tune in to Press TV, the Iranian government's English-language broadcast outlet, and you will see reports of the pervasive evil represented by the United States. It seeks war. It fabricated an international report on Iran's nuclear weapons program. It leads an elaborate "Iranophobic" conspiracy aimed at invading Iran and "plundering its natural resources."

Watch long enough and you'll also see a parade of American Muslim activists, all lamenting their problems with government policies and decrying the plight of life here for Muslims.

In the past 12 months, representatives of American Islamist groups have appeared on Press TV for interviews more than 35 times, the most recent example taking place Tuesday. Most of those included representatives of the Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR), who appeared at least 29 times. Muslim Public Affairs Council (MPAC) officials appeared at least six times.

Both groups claim to stand for civil rights and against terrorism, but their appearances feed into the narrative of the Iranian regime, which is a designated state sponsor of terrorism and a notorious human and civil rights violator.

A review of the appearances finds not one which included any criticisms of the Iranian regime for its oppression of its own people or for its support for terrorist groups. That is not surprising, given that the groups fail to make critical statements about Iran even to American audiences.

When positive things were said about religious freedom in America during Press TV appearances, it was always outweighed by claims Muslims are being singled out for scrutiny or having their rights abused.

"The American Muslims are free to practice their faith," CAIR national spokesman Ibrahim Hooper said in an Aug. 3 interview. "We live in a free society; there are many good things about being an American Muslim. But there is also a sense of being under siege from these hate mongers that are constantly trying to demonize our faith."

Later that month, Hooper expressed distrust of law enforcement, accusing the New York Police Department of blackmailing Muslims to become informants.

"We get calls all the time from individuals who are being coerced to be informants on the American Muslim community and the coercion usually takes the form of immigration issues, tax issues and other personal issues, financial issues that can be brought to bear to force people to become a spy in their own faith community," Hooper said.

MPAC government and policy analyst Alejandro Beutel appeared in a March 11 Press TV segment criticizing the House Homeland Security Committee hearing on radicalization in American Muslim communities.

"It spoke to a lot of the feelings that I think many Muslim Americans have with respect to their position here in America post-9/11," Beutel said. "We are loyal citizens to this nation and we are trying to do everything we can to keep it safe and secure. And yet even when we're doing the right things and in many cases, laying our lives down on the line for our nation, we still get stigmatized."

MPAC's profile in Washington has grown dramatically, especially when it comes to outreach directly from the White House. MPAC officials attended the White House Iftar Dinner, President Obama's 9/11 Memorial at the Kennedy Center, and Secretary Hillary Clinton's Eid ul-Fitr reception at the State Department, which was planned to commemorate the conclusion of the month of Ramadan.

On July 13, President Obama even called Haris Tarin, head of MPAC's Washington office, to commend his organization's work with the Muslim American community and the nation as a whole.

Both CAIR and MPAC have a long history of denouncing U.S. counter-terrorism efforts and particularly of accusing the FBI and law enforcement of entrapment and lying to Muslims to secure their help in locating terror suspects. For examples, see here, here, or here.

There is no denying anyone's right to appear on any program. But invitations can be declined. It's a mystery what officials of either of these organizations hope to accomplish by criticizing their own country on an official arm of a hostile Iranian regime.

Hooper again criticized the FBI on Oct. 25. That was two weeks after law enforcement disrupted an alleged Iranian-driven assassination plot on U.S. soil targeting the Saudi Arabian ambassador to Washington. And he appeared again on Tuesday, discussing new FBI hate crime data from 2010 showing an increase in anti-Muslim attacks.

The problem, Hooper said, is a conspiracy to issue a constant barrage of bigotry from "a coordinated, well-financed group" against Muslims in America.

"You cannot help but be aware of the rising anti-Muslim rhetoric in our society," he said. "You can't turn on a talk radio program, you cannot read the comments on articles online related to Islam and Muslims, you cannot watch the right-wing cable news programs without seeing, reading and hearing anti-Muslim rhetoric on a daily basis."

If supposedly "mainstream" groups like MPAC and CAIR are comfortable on Press TV, it is no wonder more openly extremist groups embrace the chance to appear on camera.

As-Sabiqun, a Washington, D.C.-based Islamist organization that has openly called for an Islamic state in America by 2050, has provided interview subjects for Press TV five times in 2011. In them, the group's leader Imam Abdul Alim Musa has accused the United States of "fighting a global war against Islam," and entrapping innocent Muslims.

"Americans have become obese and very lazy people, Musa said during a July appearance. "Americans have become addicted to television, internet, and they sit at home. But here is the thing, what we call the fall, and the decline of the American empire is in process. The American empire is so vast that it is an empire that will crumble in on itself. This is happening right now, we don't have to worry about an external rebellion, or an internal rebellion, the US economy is dead. The US military has lost all respect, not only Afghanistan, Iraq and lately Libya."

Representatives from the Muslim American Society (MAS), which was founded as the U.S. chapter of the Muslim Brotherhood, appeared twice on Press TV in the past year. Like its counterparts, they said nothing of Iranian misdeeds but they did defend a convicted terrorist, Sami Al-Arian, and also accused President Obama of contributing to rising "Islamophobia" by failing to close Guantanamo Bay.

Musa also appeared with Shaker Elsayed, imam of Northern Virginia's Dar al-Hijrah mosque, in repeating the FBI entrapment allegation. Dar al-Hijrah representatives made at least two Press TV appearances this year.

FBI agents "are not investigating to see if the individual is engaged, they are engaging the person in terrorist activities, in conspiracies, in plotting," Elsayed said. "Our experience here at al-Hijrah was very positive with the FBI leadership in Washington Field Office, until we found out that getting very close to the FBI came at a very serious price," he added.

On its website, Press TV identifies part of its vision as being "heeding the often neglected voices and perspectives of a great portion of the world" and "embracing and building bridges of cultural understanding."

But Press TV has come under fire before. In January, Britain's National Westminster Bank froze its bank account, presumably as part of an effort to cut off funding for Iranian government enterprises and force the country to abandon its nuclear weapons program.

At the time, writer Shiraz Maher applauded the act as "a welcome development," noting that Press TV "has a long track record in producing agitprop for the Iranian state, including the lie that Neda Soltan's murder by the regime was a hoax."

Iran's leadership again finds itself in the spotlight following the release of an International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) report which finds that Iran is progressing toward making nuclear weapons.

Commenting on the report, Press TV echoed the recent accusation of Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad that the director general of the IAEA, Yukiya Amano, is an American "pawn" reporting what the U.S. government tells him to say.

"In an atmosphere of cringing obedience to Washington, Mr. Amano cannot choose but to play into the hands of the US officials who look over his shoulders and observe with diligence what he puts to paper in the report he writes about Iran," a Nov. 8 Press TV article noted.

Press TV's message today is that America is a terrorist state, and that its actions – from the allegations in the Saudi assassination plot to the saber-rattling over Iran's nuclear program – are either manipulated by Israel or direct favors to the Jewish state.

By making frequent appearances critical of the United States, American Islamists reinforce a propaganda machine sowing hatred and distrust.
— posted 02/01/2012 at 11:36 by arash irandoost
27 |
Lies, Damned Lies, Zogby & Iran Surveys
Lies, Damned Lies, Zogby, TFT & Iran Surveys
Dr. Arash Irandoost
January 25, 2012

PAAIA recently published its third Public Opinion Survey of Iranian Americans which was carried out by Zogby Research Services. As an Iranian-American, journalist, researcher and political activist, I am very supportive of credible and scientific data on issues affecting Iran and the United States and PAAIA and Zogby deserve credit for making the effort. Unfortunately, my appreciation for both organizations has gradually eroded having examined their activities, affiliations, lack of transparency,* biases and double standards.

Nate Silver, statistician of FiveThirtyEight.com, called Zogby International's online polling division, "The worst pollster in the world." ranking it last in his Pollster Rankings. He also ranked Zogby's Telephone Polls 53rd of 64.

Rosemead Times reports that Zogby is politically motivated and accuses Zogby of Islamist bias documented by the fact that Saudi Prince, Saud Bin Turki, is a board member of the Zogby International with ties to the Royal House of Saud.

Atlas Shrugs in an article called Obama: Zogby’s Bias Strikes Again, reports that Zogby’s have been contributing to Obama’s campaign, as cited by the Federal Elections Commission (FEC).

According to Wikipedia, in 2004, Zogby wrongly predicted a comfortable win for John Kerry saying, "Bush had this election lost a long time ago. In 2006, Zogby wrongly calculated the margin of United States Senate races by an average of 8.6%, twice the average of Rasmussen, SurveyUSA, and Mason-Dixon.

Tim Kane, in an article titled Zogby’s Bogus Poll on US Military in Iraq, states that the unforgivable flaw in Zogby's survey is the biased phrasing of its questions and answers.

In 2009, Zogby conducted a Telephone Survey of Iranians commissioned by Terror Free Tomorrow, (TFT) stipulating that 89% of Iranians would cast a vote in the upcoming presidential elections, 34% of Iranians would vote for Ahmadinejad, compared to 14% for Mousavi and 2% Karrubi and that 60% Iranians are supportive of Shiite militias and Lebanese Hezbollah. All three extrapolations are proven to be false. Mr. Lee H. Hamilton sits on the Advisory Board of TFT with direct links to Trita Parsi and Flynt Leverett, widely known among the Iranian-Americans as lobbyists for the Islamic Republic.

PAAIA’s most recent Iranian-Americans Public Opinion Survey was conducted by Zogby via telephone and in English between Oct.3-6, 2011 containing approximately 20 questions asked of 400 “Iranian” Americans from a “purchased” list.

The definition and classification of “Iranian-Americans” as defined by PAAIA needs further exploration. Legally, an Iranian-American is a person who is a “naturalized” citizen of the United States eligible to vote and not a permanent resident (Green Card holder).” According to the survey fifty-two percent (52%) of the survey respondents, responding to a question on their plans to vote, admitted that they were not eligible to vote which disqualifies them as Iranian-“Americans.”

Questions also surround the “purchased” nature and source of the Iranian-American surname list which Zogby obtained to conduct its Iranian public opinion surveys. PAAIA has a copyright on its surveys and Zogby ignores requests to disclose information on their survey methodology.*

Of the 400 respondents, 167 (53%) were Democrats, 106 (34%) were Independents and only 40(13%) were Republicans, totaling only 313 (100%). It is not clear as to what happened to the other 87 survey participants? This sampling is erroneous and biased at best, especially on the questions related to Iranian-American’s approval of a Democrat President and Mr. Obama’s handling of Iranian uprising of 2009. It is also rather perplexing as to how Zogby could extrapolate that Iranian-Americans are “mostly inclined to vote for Obama in 2012 presidential elections” considering that there was a significant decline in Iranian-American approval of President Obama’s handling of Iran and there was even a 55% drop among the democrats themselves who stated that they would not vote for president Obama in 2012.

When asked what type of government Iranian-Americans think would work best for Iran, only 2% chose “Islamic Republic” and only 4% opted for “Reformed Islamic Republic” as options. Ninety-four (94%) of Iranian-Americans indicated they want regime change. Therefore, it begs the question as to how Zogby could conclude that merely 32% of Iranian-Americans believe that “the promotion of regime change” would be in the best interest of the United States.

Zogby also claimed that 38% of Iranian-Americans believe “diplomatic negotiations and establishing diplomatic relations are the best policy approach.” This simply defies logic. Why 94% of Iranian-Americans, who state regime change as the best option for Iran, would prefer negotiations and diplomacy? Zogby’s data does not support its conclusion.

According to the survey, only 21% of Iranian-Americans felt that sanctions were “very burdensome.” Once again, it is not clear how Zogby could conclude that “a significant number of Iranian-Americans find the restrictions imposed by the sanctions as burdensome”, when only 21% chose “very burdensome” as their answer?

It is quiet acceptable for PAAIA to lobby and protect its often super-wealthy Iranian and Iranian-American elite membership’s “self-interest,” but PAAIA’s “self-interest” should not be confused with and does not equate to 94% of the Iranian-American community’s “interests” who do not want any form of Islamic government, nor do they favor dialogue and diplomacy, removal of sanctions and opening of a virtual embassy (another Obama and Clinton ill-advised concoction) which was expectedly blocked by the Tehran’s digital gatekeepers in less than 12 hours of its launch.

Neither can PAAIA claim it focuses on domestic issues, while it attempts to influence U.S. policy and advocate for policies oftentimes favorable to the regime and Iranian-American elite businessmen.

Reputable pollsters and researchers do not normally choose their samples, since such research samples are totally biased considering that is based as it is on a “purchased” list. Purchased list are neither random nor valid. It is evident that the Zogby and PAAIA have ulterior motives considering the purpose for which such public opinion surveys are utilized: to influence Congress purportedly on behalf of the Iranian-American community. PAAIA’s surveys as designed, carried out and extrapolated by Zogby simply do not pass the smell test. Zogby’s biased phrasing of its questions, carefully constructed choices/answers and manufactured conclusions should be challenged.

In the age of the Internet, social networking, access to information and policy makers is no longer the sole propriety of a few select Iranians and Iranian-American elite and lobby groups at the expense of the larger Iranian-American community. Having left Iran by force or by choice and living as productive citizens of a great country such as the United States, Iranian-Americans should be and many are in regular contact with their local and national representatives to ensure that their opinions are heard and their views are considered, despite deceptive efforts by a select few lobbyists who attempt to mislead policy makers to serve their “self-Interests.”

There is no question that Islamic Republic has established a sophisticated lobby network to shape U.S. foreign policy. There is also no doubt that Iran’s economy is monopolized by the Islamic Republic Guardian Council (IRGC) and certain Iranian and Iranian-American wealthy elite are currently conducting lucrative business with Iran in violation of U.S. Sanctions. There are pro regime Iranians and Iranian-American businessmen and U.S. corporations who insist on dialogue and diplomacy and removal of sanctions for their economic and financial “self-interest.” Such groups are routinely quite on blatant human rights violations by the regime and Iran’s nuclear weapons’ program or are engaged in shallow human rights overtures to legitimize or hide their true intentions.

PAAIA claims to engage in domestic and non-partisan issues. PAAIA cannot conveniently surmise sanctions as domestic issues, and stay away from regime’s nuclear program and human rights that identically can be classified as domestic that affect Iranian-Americans. If PAAIA, rightfully, showcases the fact that Iranian-Americans maintain very close contact with their families and friends inside Iran to justify the removal of sanctions, it behooves its leadership to accept that human rights and nuclear weapons program are perhaps far “more burdensome” with far more serious implications and devastating consequences than issues related to sanctions on inheritance and transfer of funds.

*Readers might be interested to know that a request for the methodology and survey design was submitted to both PAAIA and Zogby. PAAIA responded by referring us to Zogby for the information and despite three requests, Zogby has refused to respond to our inquiry.
— posted 02/01/2012 at 11:39 by Arash Irandoost
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The Entire Nuclear "Crisis" Has Been Manufactured
If you go to the CASMII site mentioned in posts above, or the Leveretts' site, www.raceforiran.com, or Google for the reports from Dr. Gordon Prather and journalist Gareth Porter, you will learn the following for yourself:

1) There is ZERO evidence that Iran has any sort of "nuclear weapons program", let alone a "nuclear weapons development and deployment program."

2) There is ALMOST ZERO evidence - really close to zero - that Iran has ever HAD any sort of "nuclear weapons program" that was anything more than a set of "paper studies" researching what sort of technology might be needed for such a program.

And it was the opinion of the Defense Intelligence Agency in the run up to the 2007 National Intelligence Estimate on Iran - an overall assessment of the Iran situation by all sixteen US intelligence agencies - that Iran only had a "paper studies" program. Further they believed that Iran only had that program because of the fact that Saddam Hussein in Iraq had such a program. Iran wasn't even concerned about Israel's nuclear arsenal, let alone the US arsenal, because Iran's leaders know they can never compete with either and they knew neither Israel nor the US could commit a first strike on Iran due to geopolitical reasons. But Saddam could.

Once the US destroyed Iraq in 2003, the Iranians quite rationally stopped their program and have not restarted it - again according to all 16 US intelligence agencies as well as the Israeli intelligence agencies who admitted as much just this past week or so.

Yet Obama would have you believe that Iran is "pursuing nuclear weapons" and that he will "prevent them from doing so."

Obama is a-lying to you! The facts of his duplicity in the public record regarding his actions around the TRR Tehran Declaration cited by the Leveretts in their article clearly demonstrate this.

All the alleged "evidence" you read in the New York Times and the Washington Post about Iran's "nuclear weapons program" has been thoroughly debunked repeatedly by experts and investigative journalists.

Find out for yourself. Do the research on the sites and authors I've referred to. And there are many others.
— posted 02/01/2012 at 14:59 by Richard Steven Hack
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Professor
The Leveretts' advocacy of US diplomacy with Iran, and their critique of Washington's foreign policy, should be distinguished from their portrayal of the internal situation in Iran.

On the latter, the Leveretts have no support for their polemical claims here, from the legitimacy of the 2009 Iran Presidential election to the current political, economic, and religious situation.

Since June 2009, the Leveretts have largely relied on a single source --- the assertions of a Tehran University lecturer who is supportive of the regime. Thus, they are near-blind to the context of repression within the Islamic Republic and the current tensions within the system.

The Leveretts are right on one point: Iranians want to determine their system and not have it imposed on them by outsiders. But I would contend that those Iranians would also be opposed to ill-informed outsiders who disguise their support for the existing Islamic Republic leadership as "analysis".
— posted 02/01/2012 at 19:48 by Scott Lucas
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This is NOT about nuclear weapons and never was
Sorry Scott, but there has never been any evidence of election fraud in Iran, the so-called "Green Movement" was never really all that popular.

There is no real nuclear weapons "threat" from Iran -- that's just a pretext for a policy of regime change, and so no amount of Iranian compromises on this issue will ever suffice for the US and ISrael because ultimately their goal isn't to ensure nuclear non-proliferation, rather their goal is to implement regime change in Iran.

— posted 02/01/2012 at 20:17 by Cyrus
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Keep your Focus
There are a lot of emotional responses above. References to evil regimes are meaningless at present. The US regime is guilty of at least as many crimes as any other. The proof is everywhere. Nations, like people, have to accept one another as they are to engage in any meaningful diplomacy. Otherwise, there is nothing but threats and demands. This is not socially viable communication.

Regardless of what you think about the Green Movement, regardless of what the Leveretts think about the Green Movement, there are a couple of critical issues before us:
Do we want to be building a case for a devastating war on Iran that will cause incalculable pain and suffering in Iran, equally as much damage to the US economy and global reputation?
Can we cast the current situation inside Iran within the context of international events and influences; can we perceive it as part of a historical continuum that began more than 100 years ago with British and Russian empires interacting with the society. If you can't do this, you shouldn't be discussing what policy is best to confront the regime in Iran or claiming to know what is best for the people.
I personally don't want to see the case for war proceed any further than it has. War is bad for everyone, and in the case of Iran, the threats and covert attacks have already gone too far.
With regard to the second point, one thing is clear. You don't have to go back to Mohammad or Cyrus to see that the Iranian people are perfectly capable of running their own society. It's time we got off our high horse and allowed them to do so.
— posted 02/01/2012 at 20:36 by Judith Bello
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Professor
Cyrus,

There is plenty of evidence for manipulation of the 2009 election. And the presence of hundreds of thousands on the streets in the days after that election --- and the continuing demands for rights, justice, and adherence to the Constitution --- cannot be wished away.

This, however, is besides my original point. The Leveretts, in their attempt to denounce Parsi, offer no evidence for their assertions about Iran's internal affairs. Their claims should be treated as those of polemicists.

S.
— posted 02/01/2012 at 21:19 by Scott Lucas
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scott lucas
As someone who cheered on the green insurrection completely, it does not change the fact that Ahmedinijad did in fact win the election. The corruption in the election process is the religious council that approves candidates.

But that is not the important issue today. How do we avoid war? I agree with the Leveretts critique of Parsi, but I support what Parsi is trying to do and that is turn down the heat on the march to war.
— posted 02/01/2012 at 23:09 by ToivoS
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It has been about three years since I've paid any serious attention to Trita Parsi.

I didn't know it was this bad. It's heart breaking to see just how far he's fallen. As the Leverett's say, he's now virtually indistinguishable the humanitarian interventionists that have reeked so much havoc in Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Lybia, Somalia, Haiti, Zimbabwe etc. in the past decade alone. One would think they'd be embarrassed that they can't provide a single instance in which US 'pressure' and 'human rights agendas' have improved the living situation of the citizens of a targeted country. But they're not.
There can only be two possible explanations: these people are hopelessly, an explanation I reject out of hand in Parsi's case, or that this type of advocacy is not meant as good faith effort to educate the public about important foreign policy issues.
I have no idea what motivates Parsi. Maybe he believes he is mainly concerned with influencing the political landscape of his country of birth. Perhaps he believes that such skewed accounts of the diplomatic record will land him a more central role in Iran policy formulation. Maybe he's just covering for his own mistakes.

Whatever his motivation, I just hope he manages to do less damage than his predecessors.
— posted 02/02/2012 at 07:43 by masoud
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Shout Out to Fellow RFI'ers from Uncle Weasel
Hello, dear fellow RFI'ers. I don't have anything of any substance to say (as usual)... I just wanted to give a big shout out to my fellow beloved RFI'ers who are well-represented here, together with my personal biatch Sassan. Sassan has just not been the same ever since those shagerd-Sangakis (or "Sanjaki" as he likes to say) gave him that lobotomy. It's just sad, as my buddy Ross Perot used to say.
— posted 02/02/2012 at 11:23 by Uncle Weasel
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*Must Read below* for anyone truly interested in understanding the Iranian psyche
Iran’s Waiting Game

Even under a brutish theocracy, Iranians live as if they are entitled to their heritage of civilization and culture. This month’s sham election won’t oust the ruling mullahs, though. As the author discovers, even Ayatollah Khomeini’s grandson is looking to the U.S. for hope.



http://www.vanityfair.com/politics/features/2005/07/hitchens-200507
— posted 02/02/2012 at 15:09 by Sassan
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Appreciate the Response
ToivoS,

I am an agnostic on Ahmadinejad's victory, but you are right --- the issues are far beyond this.

Thank you,

S.
— posted 02/02/2012 at 16:58 by Scott Lucas
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Truth be told
I do not respect Leveretts any more that I value Trita Parsi. They are all apologists for different power circles within the regime. Leveretts lost much credibility (if they had any) by legitimizing Iran's sham elections via a subsidiary Terror Free Tomorrow and Zogby biased polls.

Those who have not studied TFT and Zogby poll on 2009 elections, should. Zogby refuses to release its methodology. The survey has too many flaws to list here. The idea of an accurate Telephone survey in a country where freedom of speech has been suppressed and there are serious consequences for those expressing any opinion against regime, is frankly absurd. Iranians are simply too fearful to respond honestly to phone surveys from a US based organization and are too smart and skeptical of the motives and will not express their opinions about who won the elections. The timely telephone survey was orchestrated to legitimize Ahmadinejad and Khamenei's verdict and subside the uprising which came very close to overthrow the regime.(putin's jet was on the Tarmac to fly Khamenei to Russia). We have too many eyewitness refugees in Turkey who were involved and saw voting manipulations and were arrested, silenced or had to flee Iran.

This should not signify that one should value Iranian elections. A closer examination of Iran elections (the system)clearly shows that they are rigged by the Constitutional decree. Women cannot run, non-shiia minorities cannot run,and those who dare to throw their hat in are carefully screened and vetted, many are disqualified and only select few insiders can participate (musical chairs). Elections are a propaganda tool and a way for the regime to show a resemblance of democracy and legitimize itself in reaction to potential Western pressure. For the past 33 years, regime has selected who should be the top man, and after 2009 (s)elections, Khomeini said: I am more qualified to decide for Iranians, despite their votes, I know what is best for Iran better than Iranians. So please do not legitimize Iran elections by discussing who won.

Second, Leveretts have been in bed with NIAC and Trita. Flynt must not forget that there are email correspondence between him and Trita inviting him to dinner at his house where many oil tycoons were present to discuss dialogue and diplomacy and survival of the rapist (not my words-Karrubi's)regime.

What I get from his reaction to Trita's recent book, despite its absurd and nonsensical assertions and conclusions in just about every paragraph, is that there are cracks within the lobby and pro regime groups (a good thing).

There are crack within the regime top leadership (insiders). There is a cold war going on. Rezaies sons suddent death, foru IRGC assassinations, etc.

All bets are off and Leveretts seems to have been given the green light by the Ayatollah and Ahmadinejad to go after Trita and NIAC who is in bed with the Rafsanjani camp (we all know what happened recently to Rafsanjani's son and daughter.

If my assessment is correct, Leveretts are equipped with all sorts of dirt on Trita and this is just the beginning. My assessment is also that Trita will not respond. He knows how much dirt Leveretts might have on him, then again, he might have as much on the Leveretts. Time will tell.

All politics are local. Leveretts might have issued a mild warning via this write up to Rafsanjani(reformist camp) to keep him in check before they go after his jugular, if he misbehaves. Trita is a useful idiot and dispensable, much like others before him who were done away with after they were used.

Question is: how Obama and Hillary will react, now that the Ayatollah does not seem to approve of Trita? And how Trita will try to shed his old skin and change his color to adjust to the new environment?

I plan to provide and analysis of the article and its flaws later and I am sure there are many others who are doing the same.
— posted 02/02/2012 at 17:41 by Arash Irandoost
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Trita Parsi's response to Leveretts
I think this passage from Trita Parsi's response to the Leveretts is interesting, and avoids the passion that distracts from the arguments made by both sides:

"In my more than 60 conversations and interviews with Obama administration officials, as well as officials from key states involved in this issue such as Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the European Union, … what emerged was a much more complex picture in which the president’s vision was consistently compromised by opposition from within his own cabinet; by pressure from Israel, Saudi Arabia, lobbyists, and Congress; and by the actions of the Iranian government."

I'll confidently venture a guess that the Leveretts would not exclude the other listed causes for Obama's backtracking from his hopeful Cairo speech in early 2009, with the important exception of "actions of the Iranian government." Yet they do end up minimizing the significance of these other causes, assigning a very great deal of weight instead to what they believe is Obama's insincerity from the outset.

Parsi is not correct to say that the Leveretts offer no evidence to support this assertion. For the most important example, while Obama's April 2010 letter to Brazil's president is certainly not conclusive evidence of insincerity, it nonetheless is an important fact worth considering very carefully on this question.

Even so, I think it is fair to assign more weight than the Leveretts do to the other causes offered by Parsi for the lack of follow-through: "opposition from within [Obama's] own cabinet; by pressure from Israel, Saudi Arabia, lobbyists, and Congress..." I suspect these influences on Obama were considerable, and his backbone has not proven to be as strong as many people predicted.

Whether or not "actions of the Iranian government" can fairly be added to the list of causes is harder to evaluate. I have not read Parsi's book, and so I do not know what he presents as evidence of that. I've certainly read many arguments presented by others, most of whom insist that Obama's extended hand was batted away by Khamenei, who insisted that the Iranian government would respond favorably to actions by the US government that proved to be consistent with Obama's hopeful Cairo rhetoric. Perhaps it would have been more diplomatic for Khamenei not to insist quite so bluntly that the US government "walk the walk" rather than merely "talk the talk," but "walking the walk" is what any responsible government would ultimately expect. Khamenei was merely stating that simple fact of international relations.

Sincere or not, Obama's outreach obviously has not led to any reduction of friction between the US and Iran, which seems instead to be growing. While it may be unfair for the Leveretts to attribute that solely or principally to Obama's insincerity, it nevertheless may be fair to assign the bulk of the blame to a combination of naivete and ignorance of important details, without reaching firm conclusions on the relative weight of each factor and without assigning material blame to either "insincerity" or "actions of the Iranian government."

There is good reason to believe now that Obama's gracious offer to negotiate with Iran on its nuclear program always had a precondition that predictably made any such negotiations unlikely to succeed: the US' demand that Iran give up its right to enrich uranium. Obama was diplomatic enough not to mention this in his Cairo speech, an omission that may have induced optimistic listeners to believe the US would no longer insist on this.

Perhaps Obama did not believe that the right to enrich really matters all that much to Iran, though the Iranian government has always made clear that it does. Maybe Obama understood that it matters but mistakenly believed the NPT or Iran's Safeguards Agreement denies Iran the right to enrich because of its pre-2003 disclosure violations (several serious and knowledgeable writers have made this argument, after all), and was confident that Iran would eventually be persuaded that it was not justified to insist on this "right." Possibly Obama sincerely but mistakenly believed that Iran is obligated to observe the Additional Protocol, or to answer questions about military matters that go well beyond its Safeguards Agreement and, once again, he was confident that Iran could be persuaded to start complying with these "obligations."

Each of these beliefs – if and to the extent Obama held them – could be attributed to some measure of naivete and/or ignorance of details about the NPT, Iran's Safeguards Agreement and the importance to the Iranian government of Iran's right to enrich uranium – all of which, taken together could have been sufficient to scuttle negotiations without the need to add either "insincerity" or "actions of the Iranian government" to the mix.
— posted 02/02/2012 at 19:32 by EAB
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Trita and Leveretts: Iran’s Men in Washington
The Immigrant
http://www.tabletmag.com/news-and-politics/25842/the-immigrant/
Trita Parsi, the second pillar of the U.S. Iran lobby, wants to the be the public face of Iranian-Americans
By Lee Smith|February 17, 2010 7:00

Iran’s Man in Washington
How Flynt Leverett and his wife, Hillary Mann Leverett, became leading advocates for doing business with Tehran
By Lee Smith


Trita Parsi, head of the National Iranian American Council, wants to be the face of the Iranian-American lobby in Washington. The other pillar of Washington’s Iran lobby, Flynt Leverett and his wife, Hillary Mann Leverett, have accumulated power and influence by executing the insider two-step to perfection: they have drawn close to the repressive power centers of the Iranian regime at the same time that they counsel Washington policymakers to deal with the Iranian regime we have, not the one we want. Parsi, as recently released documents disclose, has nurtured a relationship with regime insiders close to Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani—the so-called “reformers” in Tehran—who have squared off against the faction favored by the Leveretts, which includes Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, and the Revolutionary Guard Corps. But Parsi’s story involves not only Washington infighting over the looming conflict in the Persian Gulf but also the equally murky world of diaspora politics and immigrant ambition.

In November of last year, The Washington Times, a paper typically described as right-wing, published a story arguing that Parsi’s NIAC had violated its nonprofit status and served as a lobbying organization for the Iranian government. The article was sourced to emails between Parsi and other correspondents that had been made available during the discovery process of a libel suit Parsi had brought against the Iranian émigré journalist Hassan Daioleslam, who had claimed that Parsi was close to the regime. They described Parsi’s relationship with Siamak Namazi, an Iranian businessman who was formerly managing director of an Iranian consulting firm called Atieh Bahar, which served as an intermediary for Western companies, especially in the energy and financial sectors, that wanted to do business in Iran. “The Rafsanjani clan controlled access to the oil industry until they were moved out by the Revolutionary Guards,” Daioleslam told me.

“Siamak Namazi is a friend,” Parsi explained to me in an email. “He used to run Atieh Bahar consulting, Iran’s premier consulting firm (a private company). Critics have smeared AB and claimed that they work for the Iranian government and that are part of some fictitious oil-mafia.”

Parsi labeled the story’s author, Eli Lake, as a “neo-conservative activist,” a designation that he characteristically uses to describe his political adversaries; it’s a habit that, in addition to his litigiousness—he has also threatened Voice of America with legal action—indicates a nature sensitive to scrutiny. His critics contend that his name-calling obscures the facts. “Trita tried to dismiss this [lawsuit] by disparaging the defendant,” says Michael Rubin of the American Enterprise Institute. “But it wasn’t the defendant talking in the emails. It was Trita himself.”

Parsi’s reputation around Washington took a hit, but is he really an Iranian agent, as some of his opponents have appeared to suggest?

Trita Parsi, who holds a U.S. green card, came to the United States in 2001 from Sweden, where his family found refuge in 1978 before the full onslaught of the Islamic Revolution. Some of his critics complain that his biography alone compromises his ability to write about the Islamic Republic. “Trita was 4 years old when he left Iran,” says Sheema Kalbasi, an Iranian-American blogger based in the Washington area. “He studied Iran, but he didn’t live under the current regime in the ’80s, like I did.”

An outsider twice over, Parsi found a home in Washington, a city amenable to politically savvy international talent. He earned a doctorate at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies under Francis Fukuyama and worked on Capitol Hill for Bob Ney, the former Ohio congressman who went to jail for his role in the Jack Abramoff scandal. From his bleacher seat in Congress, Parsi saw his main chance—to establish an ethnic lobby for Iranian-Americans. Like the Jews, he thought, Iranian-Americans were wealthy and successful, but they lacked a powerful organization that they could use to display their communal clout and aid their homeland. They needed something like the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, the powerful Washington organ of another American immigrant community.

In 2002, Parsi formed NIAC hoping to give voice not only to the diaspora’s talents and resources but also its growing resentments. “Iranian-Americans are well respected in Los Angeles and throughout California,” says Pooya Dayanim, president of the Iranian-Jewish Public Affairs Committee. “But elsewhere there are Iranian-Americans who feel like they’re looked down upon. They feel as if they’re treated like Arabs.”

In the post-Sept. 11 climate, the timing was perfect for an organization appealing to the ethnic pride and fears of young Iranian-Americans who wanted to feel a connection to Iran—even if, like Parsi, they had little or no firsthand knowledge of the Islamic Republic. NIAC’s recruitment pitch, that the Bush administration was going to drag the United States to war with Iran, also won Parsi support of the antiwar left—one NIAC project was supported by George Soros’s Open Society Institute—as well as a hearing from a Washington policy establishment concerned that President George W. Bush and the neoconservatives were squandering America’s prestige in the Middle East, and putting lucrative commercial arrangements at risk.

Opinion leaders and policymakers in Washington during the first term of the Bush presidency “showed very bad judgment in accepting the analysis of what you might call the Iranian left,” says Reuel Marc Gerecht, an Iran specialist at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a former CIA case officer, and frequent contributor to the New York Times op-ed page. Yet even as it steadily became clear that openness and liberalization were not on Tehran’s agenda, the luster had not yet worn off of then-President Mohammed Khatami’s reform movement. Iranian democrats and émigrés alike still held out hope for a better tomorrow in a country that was crucial to America’s efforts in Iraq—and to the supply of oil from the Persian Gulf.

Parsi’s award-winning 2007 book Treacherous Alliance: The Secret Dealings of Israel, Iran, and the United States might most charitably be described as emblematic of the delusionary thinking about Iran that took hold in Washington during the Bush years. The book’s errors and omissions are all in line with Parsi’s optimistic, and untenable, thesis: despite its anti-American and anti-Israeli actions rhetoric, the Islamic Republic is not incorrigible. What Tehran has long wanted, the book argued, is merely a serious negotiating partner in Washington who could help Iran to build fruitful relationships with both the United States and Israel. “These Iranians,” says Gerecht, “badly misjudged the ruling establishment of their own country.”

Parsi was not the only Iran analyst connected to the ruling establishment in Tehran, even as many around Washington were quick to ditch him in the wake of his public troubles. As I discovered in my interviews with Iranian émigrés and Iranian-Americans, it is not just a diverse community, but also a fractious one. “In the Iranian community, everyone accuses everyone else of being a spy,” says Daioeslam. “What harmed Parsi was the documents. He couldn’t deny his relationships with the regime.”

The consensus on Parsi among Washington’s Iran hands and Iranian activists is that he would do anything to have himself front and center. However, ambition is hardly a crime—especially in Washington, where it is a staple regularly inhaled with one’s morning latte at Starbucks. It should also be said that there are certainly worse things to do in life than to give your immigrant community a voice in shaping public policy.

“He wants to empower Iranian-Americans as a civic community,” says Sohrab Ahmari, a Northeastern University law student who moved to the United States from Iran in 1998. “This is really admirable, to model it after how Jewish-Americans are organized. What’s disappointing is what he’s advocating. If the Islamic Republic could hire a lobbying firm, I couldn’t imagine it doing a better job than NIAC.”

One problem may be Parsi’s apparent choice of a model for his lobbying organization. Throughout the Middle East and in Middle Eastern circles in Washington, I am frequently asked about the fantastic power of AIPAC. What this line of questioning betrays is not only a failure to understand how policy is made in Washington, but also the fact that AIPAC reflects not just the material wealth and energy of Jewish-Americans but also the political coherence of the state of Israel. Before the State of Israel was created, there were a number of Jewish organizations competing with each other to be heard in the American capital. It was only after statehood and the larger questions surrounding the state’s existence were resolved that the Jewish-American community consolidated its support in a single mainstream lobbying organization. (In an email, Parsi attempted to explain that AIPAC was not exactly his model for NIAC. “We didn’t create a lobby, we created a 501(c)3 with no initial aim of lobbying,” he wrote. “You may be confusing NIAC with another organization that I was involved in trying to set up, but that organization was never launched. Critics of NIAC have deliberately sought to conflate the two.”)

Compared to the size of Iranian-American community at large, NIAC membership is miniscule, with Parsi claiming 3,000 and other estimates ranging from 500 to 1,000, depending on how “membership” is defined. Yet size is not the main determinant of a lobby’s success. A diaspora lobby designed to support the ethnic homeland only works if there is a coherent state to support, and the Iranian-American community is notoriously divided, comprising representatives of every possible ethnic grouping—including Baha’is, Iranian-Jewish Americans, and Iranian-Armenian Americans—and every political orientation, from monarchists who wish to install the shah’s son to democrats to supporters of the Islamic Republic who have made the Great Satan their home. The only way to circumvent the cacophony of the Iranian-American diaspora is to ignore the fissures in Iranian society that it mirrors, and vouch for a regime that fewer and fewer Iranians—and very few Iranian-Americans—are actually willing to defend.

After the Iranian regime started cracking down on protestors in the wake of the June presidential elections, Parsi was hardly alone in the realization that he was caught on the wrong side of a historic divide. “If you look at the evolution of a lot of these Iran analysts since June the common denominator is that they have friends in jail now,” says Pooya Dayanim. “In October, Genieve Abdo”—an Iran analyst who lived in Tehran as a journalist for several years—“was making fun of the demonstrators. Not anymore.” Parsi wrote a series of articles documenting his growing concern with the Tehran government’s human-rights abuses. “He had to maintain a level of credibility, he could not deny the truth,” explains Dayanim. “His membership pushed him into it. Human rights is one of the few things that Iranian-Americans agree on across the board.”

Parsi counters that human rights was always one of his main priorities. “I believe and have written on the need for a much clearer human rights policy,” he wrote me. “At times there was too much silence from Obama on that front. Only days after the elections, I wrote in the Christian Science Monitor that Obama needed to add the word ‘condemn’ to his vocabulary. And this goes for the international community as a whole, not just the U.S.” Parsi now concludes that sanctions are worthwhile, provided they are leveled against the Revolutionary Guards, or that faction of the regime that has taken control of the entire country.

“I am proud of my accomplishments as an analyst [and] of my work in getting Iranian Americans to participate and contribute to the great American democracy,” Parsi explained in his email. “This is a community that contributes so much, but due to both fear of involvement and lack of education about the American political system, often put themselves on the sidelines.”

For Parsi, a desire to lead his community corrupted his analysis of conditions inside Iran. He misunderstood not only the Iran he wrote about but also the Iranian-Americans that he hoped to represent. Iran’s true Washington lobby is the Leveretts—two American-born former U.S. government officials who were charged with sensitive portfolios affecting the security and welfare of their fellow citizens and then traded their government experience and intellectual credibility for access to the worst elements of a regime that continues to murder its own people in the streets. Washington is still sorting its way through the damage that the Leveretts have done in polluting the debate over Iran policy. And while the Leveretts enjoy their influence in Washington policy-making circles, the Iranian people will continue to pay the price.

Parsi’s dual role—attempting to speak for elements within the Iranian regime and also for Iranian émigrés in the United States—made it hard for him to see conditions inside the Islamic Republic with clarity. But when he was finally compelled to face reality, he did. Trita Parsi should be praised for that, not condemned.

Lee Smith is a senior editor at the Weekly Standard, a fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, and the author of The Strong Horse: Power, Politics, and the Clash of Arab Civilizations.
— posted 02/02/2012 at 23:31 by Arash Irandoost
41 |
Edward R. Stettinius Professor Emeritus, University of Virginia
In endorsing Trita Parsi's book, A Single Roll of the Dice, I wrote:

"If you want to know the whole truth about how the Obama administration deals with Iran, read this pathbreaking book. Parsi shatters the myth that nuclear diplomacy with Iran is exhausted; it has yet to be genuinely tried." (R. K.Ramazani, Edward R. Stettinius Professor Emeritus, University of Virginia.)

Some reviewers of the book do not seem to want to know the whole truth. They apparently have not bothered to read the book they were supposed to review.

R.K. Ramazani,
University of Virginia.
— posted 02/04/2012 at 18:43 by R. K. Ramazani
42 |
No nation, big or small, should act alone anymore.
Though Europe and the United States are accelerating economic sanctions in an effort to appease Israel, it plans to attack Iran anyway.  One might start to wonder which of these two is now the more rogue state in the Middle East.
Should Israel surgically attack Iran, as it had done Iraq twenty years ago, we can expect Iran to return fire.   And Iran might have unknown weapons in its arsenal and unknown ways to use them. 
The question then becomes to what extent do we help Israel when it picks a fight with Iran?
If the U.S. helps it unconditionally, as it had done before, then we risk retaliation from Iran on our nearby facilities. The same is true for european countries which are all within a striking distance of Iran.  
So what do we do, sit back and not help a friend trying to make the world a safer place for the rest of us?
In this case, perhaps. 
If Israel wants to bomb Iran on its own terms, when it wants to and how it wants to, then it can also stand ready to fend for itself when Iran returns fire.  To let it assume otherwise is irresponsible since it encourages rogue action on the expectation of help.  With the world on the mend from a profound economic downturn, such foreseeable misstep should be avoided. 
Does this mean then that we  should resign ourselves to a nuclear Iran? George W. Bush may have thought so, as he may have thought the same about a nuclear North Korea.   And despite his and Dick Cheney\\\'s professed love for Israel, they might have been looking for new friend in the Middle East when they toppled Saddam.  Iraq did not prove a friend, but it has proved that U.N. inspections can work because the UN teams had destroyed all of its weapons of mass destruction. 
Who knows, in time our economic sanctions might also slow down Iran.  If not, having nuclear Iran --  or nuclear anyone else -- is something the rest of us can learn to live with. 
Maybe Israel should too.  And conduct itself accordingly.  
— posted 02/05/2012 at 08:32 by Kafantaris
43 |
I read Trita Parsi's book in manuscript and wrote the following comment, which is used on the cover of the book:

"With the eye of a Washington insider,Trita Parsi assembles all the pieces of this complex puzzle in an original and persuasive way. I am aware of no one who has subjected the Obama administration's policy on Iran to this kind of sustained scrutiny. Parsi displays a nuanced understanding of the historical context and an exceptionally fine-tuned appreciation for the political conditions and vulnerabilities of both Iran and the United States."

I have had no reason then or since to change my mind. In fact, reading the comments of some reviewers, I am seriously led to wonder if they read the same book I did.
— posted 02/06/2012 at 19:31 by Gary Sick, Columbia University
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About the Author

Flynt Leverett is professor of international affairs at Penn State and senior fellow at the New America Foundation. Hillary Mann Leverett teaches U.S. foreign policy at American University’s School of International Service and heads a political risk consultancy. Together, they write The Race for Iran.

Trita Parsi,
Agenda-Driven Reviews

Ali Ansari,
Response to Flynt and Hillary Leverett

Abbas Milani,
Beating Bad Karma
Common Cause
Pious Populist

Michael McFaul and Abbas Milani,
A Third Way

Akbar Ganji,
Dreaming of a Free Iran
Half a Man
The View from Tehran

Hans Blix,
Nuclear Freeze

R. Nicholas Burns,
Carrots and Sticks


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