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PEAR Energy

Agenda-Driven Reviews


Editor’s Note: The following is a response to The Soft Side of Regime Change by Flynt Leverett and Hillary Mann Leverett.


A sensible, balanced discussion on Iran is difficult to come by these days. The level of hysteria within the Beltway is so high, analysts and pundits cannot even agree on the color of the sun. And one would be naïve to expect this charged atmosphere to be devoid of personal attacks, malicious insinuations, and the use of book reviews to discuss anything but the actual book that is supposed to be reviewed.

Flynt Leverett and Hillary Mann Leverett are not the first to write such a “review” of my new book A Single Roll of the Dice: Obama’s Diplomacy with Iran. A similar attack came from another side of the debate, with Sohrab Ahmari’s Wall Street Journal article. In both cases, instead of employing analytical rigor to understand a complex situation in which 30 years of institutionalized obstacles helped sabotage President Obama's initial diplomatic effort, they simply lay the blame on the party they oppose on ideological grounds—in the Leverett’s case, Obama; in Ahmari’s case, the Iranians. Those who disagree with their points of view are (simultaneously) labeled a neoconservative or an Iran apologist.

The Leveretts are two distinguished former U.S. officials, with backgrounds in the State Department, the CIA, and the White House. Their opposition to the George W. Bush administration’s occupation of Iraq—over which Flynt resigned from his position at the National Security Council—was admirable. They have both paid a personal and professional price for their convictions.

Which is exactly why their article falls so short of the standards one expects of them. I will not address the many false accusations, insinuations, or assumptions of motives they ascribe to me. Nor the many factual errors contained in their article since they are too numerous to detail. Some of their extrapolations and accusations—such as referring to me as a neo-conservative without a gun, or comparing the book (which strongly argues against war) with Kenneth Pollack’s The Threatening Storm: The Case for Invading Iraq—are so preposterous and disconnected from reality that they discredit their article and do not dignify a response.

Their assessment of the book seems to be based on their disagreements with my analysis on two points, one central and one peripheral to my thesis. First, the peripheral point: The Leveretts are stalwart proponents of the idea that Mahmoud Ahmadinejad won the 2009 elections fair and square, members of the opposition were simply sore losers, and no smoking gun has been provided to substantiate the accusations of fraud. This is a peripheral point in the book; I did not have the ambition to reach a conclusive verdict on this highly polarized issue. As I write:

Whether the election in Iran was rigged, whether the votes were ever counted, and whether the fraud was unnecessary—some argue that Ahmadinejad would have won even without any cheating—will be debated endlessly. And no universal consensus will likely ever be reached—the issue has so polarized the two sides that any agreement on an objective reality is unlikely for the foreseeable future. What can be concluded, however, is that the Ahmadinejad camp had a plan.

The book does not try to resolve this debate. Rather, it focuses on how the Obama administration reacted to the developments in Iran and vice versa, as well as how the election scandal and the subsequent human rights abuses (which are undisputable) affected the Obama administration’s Iran policy, its calculations, and its political space and maneuverability.

Obama’s vision was consistently compromised by his own cabinet, Israel, Saudi Arabia, lobbyists, Congress, and the actions of the Iranian government.

A more central point of disagreement is the Leveretts’ belief that the Obama administration was never serious about diplomacy with Iran. The administration’s rhetoric about engagement was, in their view, merely a clever trick designed to rally international support behind massive sanctions on Iran. It is not clear whether the Leveretts’ position is a conclusion or an assumption. Either way, they do not present any evidence (no need for a smoking gun here, it seems) to support their contention beyond some of the writings of Dennis Ross prior to his entering the Obama administration, and the fact that the Obama White House did not emulate Richard Nixon’s tactics when he went to China.

In my more than 60 conversations and interviews with Obama administration officials, as well as officials from key states involved in this issue such as Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the European Union, I did not come across evidence supporting the Leveretts’ assumption/conclusion. Rather what emerged was a much more complex picture in which the president’s vision was consistently compromised by opposition from within his own cabinet; by pressure from Israel, Saudi Arabia, lobbyists, and Congress; and by the actions of the Iranian government. All this combined with the administration’s unwillingness to fight for political space. It is this process that I describe in the book.

Indeed, if the Leveretts’ assumption/conclusion is correct, then the pressure from Israel, the opposition from Congress, and obstacles erected by the American Israel Public Affairs Committee were irrelevant. Obama never intended to engage the Iranians seriously. The jockeying and power plays between the White House and its domestic and international critics were all a façade. Operating behind the scenes was an ingenious, systematic, and continuous scheme immune to both unforeseen developments (the election scandal) and the behavior of the Iranian government.

I cannot adopt the Leveretts’ assumption or reach their conclusion in the absence of supporting evidence. How they reached it remains a mystery to me. Their conclusions seem to precede their analysis—the very definition of agenda-driven analysis they so generously ascribe to others.

Ultimately, the Leveretts’ review does not qualify as systematic and academic scrutiny of my book. Rather, it is a political verdict founded in their unwillingness to countenance deviation from their Nixon-goes-to-China proposal for dealing with Iran. I find that regrettable since their approach risks discrediting both themselves and the strategy they so passionately advocate.


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Comments

1 |
Too much pressure!
The only person that Parsi did not list as part of the cabal that undermined Obama's Grand Iran Strategy was Michelle Obama. Like the Leveretts, I respect Parsi and read his material often. But like most disappointed Obama supporters, they have to create fantasies of their Lone Cowboy. You hear similar arguments in the financial realm, where all the bankers and Goldman Sachs execs he hired to his administration undermined Obama's grand vision of going after bankers and Goldman Sachs! What bad luck this guy has.


Anyway, it's quite clear that in pretty much ever respect, Obama is carrying out the same general policies of the previous administration, with small variations here and there. So much focus on the person of Obama is getting boring.

The Leveretts are right however, that whether Parsi/NIAC believe it or not, their pushing of 'smart' sanctions, or diplomatic pressure, or a human rights monitor, is not
too far off from supporting oil or economic sanctions. You cannot pick an appetizer from the menu of imperialism and the complain when you get the whole meal shoved down your throat.
— posted 02/02/2012 at 22:46 by Bee Sat
2 |
So Trita, how do you explain the fact that Obama spoke with Turkey and Brazil, green-lighting the terms of their diplomatic mission to Iran, but when the Iranians reached with them the Tehran Declaration, Obama's immediate move was a rush for more sanctions?

How do you spin that one away from Obama?
— posted 02/03/2012 at 03:15 by Pirouz
3 |
I requested a response from Parsi in my comment to the Leveretts' article, and I closed my comment with the statement that I was disappointed with Parsi.

I'm disappointed again.

Trita writes that the Leveretts "do not present any evidence (no need for a smoking gun here, it seems) to support their contention beyond some of the writings of Dennis Ross prior to his entering the Obama administration," which, continues Parsi (after a brief commercial break)implies that:

"the pressure from Israel, the opposition from Congress, and obstacles erected by the American Israel Public Affairs Committee were irrelevant. Obama never intended to engage the Iranians seriously. The jockeying and power plays between the White House and its domestic and international critics were all a façade. Operating behind the scenes was an ingenious, systematic, and continuous scheme immune to both unforeseen developments (the election scandal) and the behavior of the Iranian government. "

Trita, Dennis Ross IS the "smoking gun;" he DID contribute to the CNAS document that Parthemore & Miller composed that proposed the "game-changing," or rather, "gotcha" strategy of pretending to negotiate in order to be able to demonstrate to the international community that "we tried" before we rallied that community for the attack.

The Israel lobby is doing the same thing today; attempting to provoke violence that will benefit Israel but not have Israel's fingerprints on it.

Dennis Ross IS the Israel lobby's man inside and outside; Dennis Ross manages the sham diplomacy and game of getting international players on board to do what Dennis Ross and the Israel lobby and his fellow AIPAC-WINEP colleague Stuart Levey have been doing since the Bush administration -- strangling Iran just like the Bush I and II neocons strangled Iraq, then move in for the kill, inviting the "international community" to bite off their share of the bloody meat, to the extent that they participated in the hunt.

Really Trita; are you honestly incapable of seeing this? Maybe it's easier to see from outside the Beltway; we out here in flyover country can see the wheels turning in the chambers of Dennis Ross's smoking gun; why can't you?

Fiorangela
PS wear the Beastie necktie. It will lighten your mood.


— posted 02/03/2012 at 19:49 by Fiorangela
4 |
The problem with Parsi's remarks
is that they are also without evidence. He says he talked to a ton of people in the process of producing the book.

Did he talk to Obama? Did Obama, with his "sincere" manner, convince him that he really, REALLY wanted to engage Iran, but somehow it just didn't happen.

Parsi should read David Bromwich's recent post on the Huffington Post which, while favorably reviewing Parsi's book, also points out the deep character flaws in Obama which make uniquely unsuitable for prolonged negotiations with anyone about anything.

Normal Finkelstein has referred to Obama as being a "stupifying narcissist", which I think explains it very well.

The situation over the Tehran Declaration, where Obama explicitly issued lying letters to the Brazilian and Turkish leaders specifying what he would accept and then days later he reverses himself precisely as his deal was accepted by Iran, is as clear as it will ever get that Obama is, like most politicians, a lying opportunist.

When you add in the fact that Obama is owned and operated by certain Chicago families with large stock portfolios in military-industrial complex corporations and who just happen to be Jewish and who campaigned for Obama on the basis of his fidelity to Israel, it becomes clear that Obama never intended to engage Iran. Instead he obeyed orders from his masters like a 19th Century southern slave.

Add to that his campaign statements that he favored a gasoline import BLOCKADE on Iran (an act of war) and that Iran should never be allowed domestic enrichment, and it's hard to square the notion that he was interested in anything but forcing Iran to bow down to his "diplomatic acumen."

Bottom line: Either Obama is stupid enough to believe his own rhetoric - and no one is willing to call Obama stupid - or he is an inveterate liar. There is no other possible outcome.
— posted 02/04/2012 at 02:22 by Richard Steven Hack
5 |
Fluffial, not peripheral
Parsi wrote:

"Whether the election in Iran was rigged, whether the votes were ever counted, and whether the fraud was unnecessary—some argue that Ahmadinejad would have won even without any cheating—will be debated endlessly. And no universal consensus will likely ever be reached—the issue has so polarized the two sides that any agreement on an objective reality is unlikely for the foreseeable future. What can be concluded, however, is that the Ahmadinejad camp had a plan."

I can hardly think of a more negative way of describing one's alleged new-found neutrality. The clincher is equating the two sides of the debate and instructing public opinion to be forever doubtful of whether or not AN won the election, and remain forever doubtful of ANY legitimacy to Iran's system of government. This, Parsi claims is peripheral to prospects of engagement!

Peripheral? Really? I had the misfortune of residing on this planet in 2009. Perhaps Trita can point me to one western mass circulation media (print or broadcast) which did not dedicate itself to highlighting every (unverifiable) twitter message to drive home a single message: Iranian regime is brutal and illegitimate. What does pres. Obama do, other than pointedly invite the correspondent from HuffingtonPost to ask a question at a press briefing, thereby giving the worst manipulator of news on Iran even more visibility, and accredit Huffington Post's Iran coverage with a totally undeserved presidential seal of 'serious journalism.'

This was peripheral? Are you kidding? On par with the nuclear scare, the Iran elections and its aftermath accounted for more than 99% anything that was said, written, broadcasted, or speechified, making it impossible to 'engage' with Iran. In fact, the round the clock demonisation of Iran in the press was instrumental in justifying the draconian sanctions and the take-it-or-leave-it inflexibility even in the 45 minutes that Obama deigned to engage.

To Parsi, there was regime change in the air, and he pushed his agenda whenever, and wherever he could find an audience. How intellectually convenient to regard the whole matter as peripheral, now that after 3 years not a scrap of evidence has surfaced to counter the overwhelming evidence that the elections were legit.

You are right about one thing Trita. It does take personal courage, and potential sacrifice of careers to be on the side of the truth these days.

And, as Cyrus blogs in IranAffairs:

Quote:

I've often written how in the aftermath of the "WMDs in Iraq" fiasco, not a single one of the talking heads who so cravenly promoted the lie to justify the invasion of Iraq was ever held to account. I suppose that's why Leslie Gelb of the Council of Foreign Relations feels free to now admit that he supported the Iraq war due to personal career concerns:

My initial support for the war [in Iraq] was symptomatic of unfortunate tendencies within the foreign policy community, namely the disposition and incentives to support wars to retain political and professional credibility. We 'experts' have a lot to fix about ourselves, even as we 'perfect' the media. We must redouble our commitment to independent thought, and embrace, rather than cast aside, opinions and facts that blow the common—often wrong—wisdom apart. Our democracy requires nothing less.

End Quote
--------

I think it is safer not believe a word out Iran 'experts' unless they can show a little sacrifice here and there for the sake of objectivity and truth.

Being criticized by both sides is not 'sacrifice'. Finding excuses for Obama administration's policy failures which you yourself had a hand in, and going to book lengths to present a simple matter of lack of intention as soooooh complex for the average mind to fathom is not the kind of courage that may result in a little sacrifice. In fact, I'm sure you expect to be rewarded.
— posted 02/06/2012 at 14:55 by BiBiJon
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About the Author

Trita Parsi is president of the National Iranian American Council and author of Treacherous Alliance: The Secret Dealings of Iran, Israel and the United States and A Single Role of the Dice: Obama’s Diplomacy with Iran.

Flynt Leverett and Hillary Mann Leverett,
The Soft Side of Regime Change

Ali Ansari,
Response to Flynt and Hillary Leverett


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